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数学家推算英格兰前景 克法国进四强无缘冠军
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北京时间6月12日消息，[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/3/][color=#0000ff]南非[/color][/url]世界杯的比赛已然拉开战幕，而英国的学者们通过数学模型测算，认为[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/2/][color=#0000ff]英格兰[/color][/url]将会在八强战中遭遇2006年的[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/6/][color=#0000ff]德国[/color][/url]世界杯亚军[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/21/][color=#0000ff]法国[/color][/url]队，但英国队将会淘汰对手从而晋级四强，不过他认为英格兰夺冠几率渺茫。[p=30, 2, left]数学模型是近些年发展起来的新学科，是数学理论与实际问题相结合的一门科学。它将现实问题归结为相应的数学问题，并在此基础上利用数学的概念、方法和理论进行深入的分析和研究，从而对现实问题未来的发展方向做出判断。尽管不一定准确，但是越来越多的数学家对这项研究充满了兴趣。[/p][p=30, 2, left]麦克海尔博士是索尔福德大学的一位体育统计学家，他利用数学模型演算了过去世界杯的比赛，然后通过国际足联的排名进行相应的设定。在利用数学模型经过测算之后，他说道：“英格兰很容易闯过首轮淘汰赛，从而进入八强，而他们的对手很有可能是法国，不幸的是法国队将会被英格兰队所淘汰。”[/p][p=30, 2, left]海尔博士同时表示，英格兰虽然能够晋级四强，但是夺冠的希望渺茫，在他的测算中，英格兰可能遭遇[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/19/][color=#0000ff]荷兰[/color][/url]或者[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/8/][color=#0000ff]巴西[/color][/url]，进而无缘决赛。他认为，最有可能夺冠的球队是来自荷兰和巴西，他表示荷兰在本届世界杯上将会有很好的表现，夺冠的可能性较大，概率大约为12%稍微领先[url=http://worldcup.qq.com/d/teams/1/26/][color=#0000ff]西班牙[/color][/url]，而落后于巴西。毫无疑问，这位体育博士认为巴西问鼎冠军的可能性要远远大于所有球队。[/p] |
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