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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)9 T' d# X! _5 k: z& Q
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实3 t' U& ?0 ?! Q
质,结果也许真的会大不一样。3 M" l) p/ e1 G' b2 w, R7 \
一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多# f% U1 \5 D7 E9 `0 v: R7 d) r
美元
$ L) c- S9 X: W/ v- |他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌
4 \ v4 q$ H1 C6 ^控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可
5 y" b) F+ p) D$ d: _以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。& T# m1 F' g) r6 h1 s
Dubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游
- g4 ]0 ]! ^; F+ D8 R6 K; C戏,我赞承这种说法。
# L- D' e7 V/ k: W2 ?$ }7 Q现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
: q9 A3 |! E& A+ p) h也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。
- g1 ~! f! V: z9 g6 d首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。) G' a5 x9 I* M9 G
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?
5 v& ^( p+ F8 V疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种/ {( C! k( J6 E$ R* u0 t( f
G-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出. F& d* s& f0 a. q4 I" }+ J8 X0 O/ y& H
的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
( U: H; u% H" S/ o6 v$ Z* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?$ D, @5 l0 k. I- q0 t
Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the) j2 u8 p1 j5 C' J. T
equipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?' Z. {/ t! E/ b; ]
* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?
S. i6 N0 C6 |0 k9 m$ u) V7 a* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?: I1 h' {# x, W) B, A" D Y
Could it be software involved?
; d$ y- }. l+ z, H7 j* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
) j! ~) [; E m- O* q2 ]: v2 V Qsame resemblance but never and ever match entirely?% J& Y1 Z k8 a: }' l$ L; R
* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,
' R" C4 j! F9 w; Fis it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?
L( a! C# f a* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals1 T1 [2 c4 W0 B( O) K0 ~! ~0 o1 X
to the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?
& R- h2 e" |7 k" f- q, A/ G* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take
2 ^. j v) _" _their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially
; o6 J4 J3 h7 ]/ A0 h$ C* Bwhere there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how
+ X9 N& w1 @) \many $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility. y7 P4 K+ m* E1 C' [
of the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
2 U1 v# p9 j, c7 Y( x" D& \** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
0 O- m" W$ t) [9 `/ ~** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。
4 R5 {% v9 [' g疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP) X" ^) [6 @" k
似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...9 n& p% t. X- o7 B8 d
Winning numbers how there are selected
* i5 V# f7 m7 wThis is the way we select the winning numbers:, Z! G$ p6 F; R! H
Select "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers
3 J! H$ ]6 y" s8 ^& g: ?where Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'4 X% k2 h. ~( f3 V% n
and Method_of_Played='XXXX'
8 z# Y( m) V F. Y% } W4 h! NOn each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.
: @3 `* y: [. }$ Q9 c7 @3 sWe run this query against all played sets.
6 \# k" H' l0 H$ {We then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.6 ~) S7 ^ l) a1 r0 E1 R
For example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run
' [+ W' O5 Z5 Q- {- |. P- Ithe following query:
/ T& a7 i) U7 [& ^Select unique numbers_set from played_numbers6 w2 B- d' b: S8 {; |4 ^
where province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';3 n. K: X# h+ i0 y L$ J, H, \
It just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.
1 f8 C) G q/ U8 DWe prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.
. d4 m8 H3 q& B( M2 EIf we do not want a winner we run the following query:
6 z N6 j1 b) r4 F$ m. E0 e" B; aSelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;: K9 R) R- f3 @( L* r. l
上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。
. x# L, K9 L. M$ a3 o虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),
* ?3 m9 y' W+ S5 k6 Q; S+ j6 r很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。
& O0 U! z+ e! h7 K& i+ r疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司
$ J4 O; Z" i+ g! O( j/ i, j( S3 r在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖
* T. Z$ s/ |$ D7 \. f0 @0 R+ y0 l人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?
: W }( }0 N5 V+ h" F为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖" g9 v. J0 U* L' S% S2 b
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。
0 q7 c* K# w& l! h6 A疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重* a2 o. }! ^& c8 f3 ?
复中彩者)
! m8 M& O8 b+ D0 w0 f5 K h3 `3 n) Y为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的. N# P0 \8 n9 k1 r; w" b: _
可能性?
. [0 q6 w6 V4 ^# J疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable
! D& v* G$ J8 f+ RBenefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?, U+ w; X% t7 u6 i7 v6 M
下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、
- F- N; H6 d) P9 ], |; ?Taxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而3 y$ ]' k7 d5 m, f. E
止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心% W8 {# w# ]. A
理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最. T6 W4 U" n* H! R" M0 [& _* ^* m$ {
基本的知识。
4 q9 c6 _* L6 u7 l( y; b应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,
- @+ q2 K0 j* @1 _) B8 Y8 A: k在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票
6 x4 d l9 {- x4 n! i而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比: m# o* O/ K2 K) k% T
如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5( o& m, r8 E- o' h' m
个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。; c( c0 T* }& m) o! k" T2 y
理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可
0 t0 S4 s2 r( R2 D5 l结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业
& O R4 p* R; O+ _/ M$ l, b6 Y玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。
2 v d w. H+ E2 T) p! C9 S20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,
: g' R$ X( L2 _. K似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有
( w u4 b1 b/ z, b- P1 a人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最 Q) d/ n' g/ W2 T2 r6 x
后你还有70%的机率是赔。2 U6 r; y# n. j9 D1 _: y
即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick
# R0 K1 ]0 b! S+ E$ Z# \) dpick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。9 Q) m/ P0 `2 ]! O0 \0 F
且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率4 Z4 L( Q* k+ h. m# Y4 C$ ?
也不保证100%中奖机率。
9 {3 G( I* ^ B" M举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,6 Q$ J' C; S) o3 V3 v% x# P
却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少
* }$ r* M2 s* a& S. ?买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计
- s! _. O. r/ [' [" H" i一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling" B' D W n# P' f
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech* K+ W; r# E4 u) u
影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。% a0 r- E) j& r' ?5 ~
如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
- G$ s8 ?0 ]$ S% S+ x没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。) U% h2 ^, y% m$ J$ X
说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。
* Q/ E d% W& j% ]4 e# a明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;
9 Q$ t' H" _9 l/ _8 `) Y0 x: ~% H不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;1 ?8 g4 {% J4 B/ p; S; z
不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。6 ?+ a* W# U3 R0 r" q
且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,
& o o: G) i, `前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。
2 |+ P: z3 q4 g$ ]$ u7 C4 X比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖- f/ J* @- ~$ j+ {
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。1 ^" I" p' Q5 O) K& w* N
对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复0 |. Q, g" ~& m5 z
1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次
- }' }" E8 x0 c( V5 z6 D, d数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。
3 j" A! Y- ]- e! V8 s/ l明白人知道这里我想说明什么。
, @5 r( h8 l; I! V在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或. G2 K4 A/ k, D! G" x
大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系 y$ n7 P5 E9 q& f& M+ v1 q5 W
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,7 r& {6 W) z1 _2 R2 l) B
但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为- P' o8 B" n1 E" d
止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期. u7 O* _0 X% ?% V+ [1 X
奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,$ T. g7 P/ _. c5 \' P+ ]
有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。
& b/ V8 Y2 u6 h3 Y1 y小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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