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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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! A7 a! S5 a5 J& L3 z& ?2 O3 v; Y, F7 e* V7 I
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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: t N1 F ]$ K' z+ t1 g& ?$ `+ B以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
& N) Z5 k9 g! I# Q! o
9 @2 v3 u5 M" Q皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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4 o2 e8 [' B# E1 P很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?3 [! a* X( \8 w; Y, V" }$ c
# Z) Z5 N9 q' e- j8 v8 x' H答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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8 F: G' \; S. t# Y5 c8 r. D盈利可能性! ~7 `( @- B! d# ?1 j- [
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
/ B5 M# t& H9 {$ [2 P, n. G4 ^: ]) ]" j/ ]! q
增值2 Z; _5 _- ]- Z H& b- w
5 @. A% l; h) Y( f许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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5 H }/ y2 J7 x0 _你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?7 E% @: p6 r7 A5 L7 q
4 @" s4 e: ^( c" c4 Za) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 * N. p3 j5 L* o& u7 V4 }& H$ m
( l8 X( T& p6 ?! _' r/ |0 T& Y
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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" I) E& R' |2 Q p% c6 x40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
$ {0 \- t/ _1 }7 c% B60%的机会你会一无所有
; y6 Q3 z: Z2 g3 U$ x预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 4 U* O, A( m5 \: r( P
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
4 [8 p1 I$ L0 n2 a, k. y8 K7 P: j; |7 M! U/ O0 w+ y1 m; R
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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i0 g H4 l9 x' I* D基于增值的投注/ l- i* e4 |0 y+ k! R7 S" Q
p' C# O4 ~) m/ S% k凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)* ~" C& H4 X% X- m; N
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A=博彩资金, J x' e/ l( G9 y
P=获胜机会% D, ]- _! W# ~0 x3 @5 z8 z
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。; h @! Z2 [! J) J5 {; p3 ]: X
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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\2 y B. d6 ^" r. ]1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)+ S- C: I; r7 L6 t9 x! ?
& }2 r% Q5 v: X; O( s* iA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
% d# \5 S, K4 ^3 s/ e& X
9 P! E; y) w- ]& e$ `; D* ~A=0% e S- b: W- O! P) K. ~
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢$ ]+ f+ I; @8 A$ E0 t- L+ s* q: B
) c% [1 n: s& e2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)' |5 K3 x5 a" P7 _3 c4 I7 A( B
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1- i/ V$ G- q, v
, _# g Y2 V9 `8 i# u结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
5 ~9 U$ T5 r+ l* O0 v& p( e. X4 d" [' v" T3 J( ]+ B2 _* X, x& t9 @8 Q9 g
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)- A' ^5 H. M b' i6 D, @) U+ k6 V% r
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)3 i7 E6 ^" r. R# P/ }+ }
7 x+ u) N- s3 j) S o3 v6 T
A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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