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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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$ t! w" F& `0 V西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率0 m! u9 j! C7 t" T, K* t5 T! f% j  u

, p+ j4 q0 \  m# y6 s) Y以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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+ @* ?& W, I7 l. u2 H! {皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 0 e' U+ n/ e3 @/ c

7 \7 Z# A; {1 F  N) K0 T很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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0 P. i4 L! y6 R' h: ]' Q答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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, O0 U0 r8 a8 `9 C- k7 S2 }% X6 F8 o以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?$ Q; e/ H$ f7 p0 D8 F

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盈利可能性: H# S: h+ x$ \7 ^) p6 y
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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8 G+ v* o! m$ d" O; S4 k* X5 R2 Z增值
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3 x4 D" |, \& ^: M% Y许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。/ L3 o% m; x7 z# ]8 Q$ B3 v

. j: I* \! Y# z' Q! s9 K你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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  v  X. o7 R( J# Q' X  Ua) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 - @1 X0 Z% r/ W/ d" i% k

) {2 x: s" ?! `! u/ E# g正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
1 P* E7 F- f2 a1 l# B' Z60%的机会你会一无所有" _& ^7 M( q9 E# g+ y. w
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
+ L2 a& y! w# p( \由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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: f: a" a7 I1 t3 T# V  @增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。$ {2 z  u* q9 L' H
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基于增值的投注
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2 W6 h2 A8 P+ q% F% ]) g' y$ r0 l& G凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1): D, z8 d2 D& T1 M% J# M

4 _: ~# F7 s. k$ ^/ [" x( A3 @7 WA=博彩资金: y$ R( A' u7 Z, y& d
P=获胜机会  q0 W. u% _/ o( w
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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. ?& N: e- [/ T首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。9 L8 E: O( h% }  m
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。8 S% z( _: ^9 h" o1 h& Q! ^# ?: n
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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. T0 j& o+ k7 t8 Q4 v2 t* @/ I. U$ VA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)+ ?  u. {  N6 S2 ^7 I( d
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢' o2 V1 R$ @3 i
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)6 I/ l# f5 I. j! `3 y# P
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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% ]: S  ?! J* g; ~% VA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去% g9 t. f2 E. _

5 U% L. |* F3 ^3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2): J+ V2 |" ?0 O1 p- @, a! Z: x
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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: Y' o- f4 q  [% xA= -0.2 + o: ?; V, i3 S& j4 u" m% i; W$ f3 z
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好6 i6 e6 `# j& y9 s; g7 a+ O

  S3 ^1 I) d9 [, ?) h第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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