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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。% D+ G' x3 G3 Z3 c" w

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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7 _4 @; P1 ~$ m' B4 i以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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  q4 s* C6 y5 |皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 3 ^0 J2 s- _' n# f: B/ `

: e. m5 r) p8 x很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?- G/ [9 q/ M2 s% S; ^2 s

! ]. m7 T5 Y  C0 p4 y$ e答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)3 m7 h5 N, Z" X" Y

6 l, i1 B, d& W& z1 i) `- P5 u" z1 g3 S8 O' G
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; `( a) ^+ n; E( s& g8 a

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盈利可能性
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1 _: X5 `$ {; q% a& _$ Y, {对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。+ V+ o/ W$ _0 v% s3 W: `! ]
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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% W0 h( Y3 w, f$ q/ `你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 5 q6 R. G5 K$ }, y0 r! C: f. V

! A' I. O) r8 T* @* @# f正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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$ b7 m; H( r# {! Z6 U4 f0 t5 @  r7 |$ ~6 r$ p40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
! G; o* l9 A: I6 x" d" ^60%的机会你会一无所有! a  J, M5 F6 X1 p% V
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 # Y( l" C# S0 E- G9 L: U
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。  b& S7 o/ I& L

6 X/ j  f. F6 V+ R7 H( M/ O基于增值的投注3 |" c1 J/ a+ a' U5 _/ n7 m

( t% t$ {/ H& v) ], z凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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; w5 C- r2 `9 G公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
! I6 f9 a4 h1 _2 F2 n5 iP=获胜机会+ Q" x/ P3 Z3 p" T, d; f
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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) a5 b8 K  U" f1 i- D首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0$ B4 ^; A' T% e/ t1 g3 Z. c+ U5 s
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)" z4 ]' y; R/ C% }$ x5 M

& H+ G1 Z9 y2 X8 Y6 ~A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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0 [" _9 j; H: B( ~A=0.15 v5 |8 ^# l$ \: a0 _: U' h& h
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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( }4 Z% D2 V$ \2 b9 c* \3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)* D9 d9 i! A0 u% L6 O

* x; `. Z! ?6 }1 q5 D$ x" kA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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5 @) E$ Y# o& A- j: cA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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2 ?2 S7 z! s$ j* g, L第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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