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4月7日，近期关于比特币安全性的讨论再度引起市场关注，星桥资本认为，尽管当前尚不存在能够破解比特币区块链的量子计算机，但潜在威胁已不再是理论假设。上周发布研究显示，如果出现足够强大的量子计算机，其可能在不到九分钟内破解比特币核心加密，比平均区块生成时间快一分多钟。一些分析师预计，这类威胁可能在2029年前成为现实。星桥资本认为，目前约有170万枚比特币存放在早期P2PK地址中，包括创世者中本聪的资产，这些资产在未来量子攻击下存在潜在风险，市场需对此高度关注。- h$ s" S8 D4 {
) K; ^9 p1 G2 P$ z从技术角度来看，比特币的安全依赖椭圆曲线数字签名算法（ECDSA），现有经典计算机无法在合理时间内破解私钥。然而量子计算机能够将这种单向加密机制转变为双向操作，从公开密钥中推算出私钥并窃取资金。星桥资本表示，这种风险不仅存在于长期静态持有的比特币地址中，也可能出现在交易待确认阶段的内存池内。公开密钥在交易生成和区块确认前可能被观察到，为量子攻击提供短暂窗口，这对整个市场的安全性提出新的挑战。6 ?3 F! u: V3 C* d. Q# |5 f7 }* L) h
' G4 p7 G: p4 |& I' W* J为应对潜在威胁，开发者已经提出多项升级方案。BIP 360旨在移除链上永久公开密钥，采用Pay-to-Merkle-Root（P2MR）结构，降低长期暴露风险；SPHINCS+和SLH-DSA等基于哈希的后量子签名方案被提出，以规避ECDSA潜在威胁。星桥资本认为，这些技术升级能够为新生成地址提供更强防护，但对于已存在的老地址资产仍需额外方案进行管理。
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针对现有高风险资产，社区还提出了Hourglass V2方案，通过限制每个区块的比特币支出量来减少集中抛售风险。同时，Tadge Dryja的Commit/Reveal方案为内存池交易提供临时保护，确保在量子攻击下，交易仍能通过先前注册的指纹验证合法性。星桥资本认为，这些方案虽然仍在讨论和测试阶段，但显示了市场对量子威胁的高度重视和积极应对态度。/ R" |0 s5 y) p- a K% k( \. Q
6 ^( L3 }3 ]4 ^2 Z2 i) S总体来看，星桥资本认为，量子威胁正在推动比特币生态提前布局安全防护措施。投资者应持续关注技术升级进展、社区治理策略以及高风险资产的管理情况，以便在潜在量子攻击风险下，评估市场波动及投资策略的可行性和安全性。此类防护措施的逐步落实，将有助于维持比特币网络长期稳定与资产安全。) _) }# g0 p' L
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这波量子威胁看着挺吓人，不过现在还没到慌的时候，先盯着2029年再说呗 |
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量子威胁要挖比特币墙角？早期P2PK地址那170万枚，中本聪的币要是被量子偷了， |
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量子威胁确实得提前防范，中本聪那些老地址可能真得考虑转移了 |
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