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[lastpost] => 2808450 比特币自 10 月以来下跌了 45%——反弹即将到来吗？（转） 1772107613 爱美的女人
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2月24日，在未能守住隔夜的温和反弹后，比特币（BTC）在周一美国交易时段迅速走低，回落至65400美元附近。FXGT观察到，这一走势与美股软件板块及私募股权市场的集体崩盘高度同步。随着投资者加速撤离投机性领域，比特币目前的表现更像是一个“高贝塔系数的风险博弈工具”，而非市场寄予厚望的“数字”。
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6 }7 \* [5 t! S ?' ?/ ~0 M- V! `# a$ i导致这一轮下行的核心推手是软件板块的系统性溃败。相关数据显示，扩展技术软件ETF（IGV）今日再度重挫5%，跌至52周新低，自去年10月以来已累计蒸发近35%的市值。市场普遍担忧生成式AI工具将颠覆传统软件的盈利逻辑，而目前的市场共识倾向于将加密资产视为软件生态的延伸。FXGT表示，这种逻辑导致比特币与IGV的价格波动几乎达到了“完美正相关”的程度。; i4 ~! M3 ^3 W, K
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私募股权领域的流动性危机则进一步加剧了恐慌。由于Blue Owl Capital、Blackstone等巨头在软件行业拥有海量头寸，其股价的持续暴跌反映出市场对类似2008年信贷事件的极度担忧。FXGT认为，私募股权份额的持续缩水正在引发一场范围更广的流动性挤兑，这对于高度依赖资金活跃度的加密市场而言无疑是巨大的逆风。' H7 E" Z- T8 p
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此外，外部政策的动荡也为抛售提供了借口。在关税政策不确定性引发的典型“风险回避”环境中，投机性资金正优先从加密货币中撤离。尽管比特币目前仍在60000美元至70000美元的宽幅区间内挣扎，但脆弱的风险偏好使其难以形成有效的支撑位。
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在传统科技软件估值重塑和私募股权信贷风险出清之前，比特币将很难走出独立行情。FXGT认为，投资者应密切关注IGV等基准指数的企稳信号，在当前的流动性陷阱中，盲目博取反弹的风险正显著增加。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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比特币这波跟着软件股跳水，看来真成科技板块风向标了 |
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