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市场普遍认为美联储将在9月降息，这将推动比特币和其他资产价格上涨。
/ w% [$ b* f0 [& u2 m( O降息之后，比特币价格就飙升了，对吧？至少网上大家都这么说。, S4 A# c, c* ~9 d* G: l, M) v
但
7 A0 ~% e2 s* k: i2 y$ c6 j: v历史告诉我们的却是一个更为复杂的故事
) H# f) V' x/ |3 q% ]。
4 n2 ^2 Y) Y9 x y) C+ b0 u) S7 YBinance Research 刚刚发布了一项新研究，表明
$ ?# l3 D4 ^+ _8 Z* F, D美联储的降息举措本身并不是比特币价格走势的可靠独立指标6 {9 @& V* f3 H
。
( e/ R3 R( |1 X( P6 Q记住，数据不在乎你的感受或观点。数字本身就是数字，仅此而已。( b$ b+ [8 J |0 L( o1 P
Binance Research深入研究了相关数据。他们发现，自2014年比特币进入主流以来，美国经历了三次重大降息周期。该研究仅关注2019年和2024年的降息周期，因为2020年的降息是由一次性的全球疫情引发的。$ i" C' i# K7 ~3 w7 c, i
那么2019年美联储降息时发生了什么？% U# F1 x' ~1 y! n/ j" m0 j
比特币呈现出典型的“传言买入，新闻卖出”模式。在降息前的几个月里，比特币的价格从约4,000美元飙升至13,000美元。然而，一旦降息真正实施，价格就开始下跌。
# `7 r2 W0 D& |, P2024年的降息前景则不那么明朗。降息后比特币价格的大幅上涨与美国大选形势的变化密切相关，因此
, ?5 c' ?6 S, y( N* S很难将价格波动完全归因于降息本身。2 G1 K' M5 m4 S9 p
因此，2019年我们看到比特币价格在降息后下跌，而到了 2024 年，比特币价格上涨的驱动因素则显得更为复杂。# Y4 x* U5 i8 g) `7 W
Binance Research随后进行了两项定量分析，结果
+ {% @- C/ `% V2 y- j6 X( C均表明利率与比特币价格之间缺乏稳定且显著的相关性。
6 [& `6 m. ~$ n) c7 l: X第一项研究比较了美国联邦基金利率的同比变化与比特币价格的同比变化。分析显示
3 w! R7 `. a v$ H，两者之间没有明显的负相关性。8 R) u" S) M9 r' `
第二项分析利用利率期货市场数据来衡量市场对未来利率变化的预期，并分析了其与比特币价格六个月的相关性。结果再次显示，! B* G! l' o/ X
两者之间的关系极不稳定，表明市场对利率变化的预期几乎无法解释比特币价格的任何线性波动。) `# T2 z! G- D3 _
那么，
6 r7 v' K# i# j& {# d: c3 u如果利率不是比特币价格的驱动因素，那又是什么呢？0 \6 f' p% V0 I
Binance Research指出，流动性是关键所在。他们指出：“& _; n+ I4 ~' Y
芝加哥联邦储备银行全国金融状况指数（NFCI）. n0 }8 e0 {! e* s" y
这一关键指标的历史数据显示，
& b* F5 [5 [8 R. x Y1 R6 K该指数的紧缩程度与比特币价格波动之间存在相对明显的负相关性。该指数近期呈现上涨趋势，值得市场警惕
# C) u+ D% u; w6 j。+ E/ p a6 f, [5 x& ]- T- l
”- Q' S+ q& l, p( u. j
因此，尽管每个人都期待美联储9月份降息，但不要指望这会成为比特币价格上涨的原因。
! _3 P5 b3 |& a$ b; I8 f免责声明
# D8 o" e, R; Z; Y本文引用来源包括( Y* b _+ b E0 A+ K% s: I( i
金色财经' b* L) U, w4 w7 [2 g5 u
、) c: ]) f6 n$ \5 x! K# n" L- g. B8 G
PANews [- i. ~$ M2 q, S$ z3 |
等，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。
' V) z$ C, ~9 a8 | |
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降息对比特币的走势影响真是复杂多变，靠谱指标都不一定准 |
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