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[虚拟币交流]
比特币关键指标再次闪烁——BTC 会反弹至新高吗？（转）
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随着比特币徘徊在历史高点附近，积极的购买行为再次出现，但鲸鱼的行为却呈现出分歧。
/ w4 d7 @2 l, R8 \7 j6 qRSI 信号超买水平，而 MACD 动量减弱——BTC 需要突破 105,000 美元，否则有回调风险。
, K1 y8 S2 {/ W5 e# ?比特币的[BTC]随着积极的买家涌入市场，市场势头再次增强。
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接受者买入/卖出比率已飙升至 1.02，这是自几次历史性突破以来从未见过的水平，表明市场参与者的信心日益增强。
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) i/ D' G. A3 I2 }/ n2 ~2 h链上数据显示，大型钱包正在加大增持力度，为许多人猜测的可能创下历史新高的最后冲刺做好准备。
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随着市场情绪升温，BTC 价格徘徊在之前的峰值下方，下一轮上涨行情是否即将开始？
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市场信心[激增]？
2 p/ t" o, D) d$ s8 [根据最近的CryptoQuant 报告，Taker 买入/卖出比率已果断突破 1.00 大关，达到 1.02——这一水平在历史上与比特币价格走势的突破时刻相关。0 S8 _ K- \7 _( V7 M! x- D3 q' S! |
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2022 年末，在 15,000 美元至 20,000 美元的积累区附近以及 2023 年 10 月突破 30,000 美元之前也出现了类似的峰值。 H6 ~1 W) j( N6 U0 O
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随着 BTC 目前徘徊在历史高点附近，积极购买的回归表明人们的信心日益增强——但这也提高了风险，因为这个门槛此前曾先于上涨和急剧逆转。4 ~% F0 m. k j" P
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超级持有者已暂停
3 R; t, s; a* M" J) E7 }+ ?尽管总体积累趋势依然看涨，但仔细观察就会发现行为发生了微妙的转变。! c% T/ J# H1 e. h5 N7 ]
" h7 [4 U9 s9 ~% @# i根据 Glassnode，持有超过 10,000 BTC 的超大鲸鱼已经冷却了他们的购买活动，回到了 0.5 左右的中性积累分数。7 `, U0 S0 x, y+ G$ J* Q
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相比之下，中等规模的群体（持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）仍然是活跃的买家，得分接近 0.9。
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3 W3 z% P* H9 U! Z9 Q5 z: e即使是规模较小的机构投资者也表现出持续的强劲势头。然而，散户投资者仍在继续分散资金。. j5 g6 T7 a* o( c' K& w
0 p3 Q$ i1 J* \* T9 ?尽管看涨势头持续，但推动涨势的主要是中等规模的投资者，而非资金雄厚的投资者。
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+ }1 w7 Z0 B( P6 t2 i; p* b比特币显示出疲软迹象5 ]) d2 g1 ?, ?# } `1 `
RSI 为 70.68，确认了超买状况，这通常是局部顶部或小幅回调的前兆。. B. Q4 Z7 [3 U* f: W3 D" ^
8 U% \* l Z% Y0 d c此外，MACD指标仍保持看涨，MACD线位于信号线上方。然而，动能正在趋于平缓，反映出购买压力正在降温。+ s6 f9 b A# E _) r! f: ]) z
, \4 @& Z! ?: l( v3 z/ c8 t: l+ I尽管早些时候出现飙升，但价格仍然维持区间波动，暗示可能出现疲软。
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如果 BTC 未能令人信服地突破 105,000 美元，那么在任何持续突破尝试之前，短期回调至 100,000 美元或更低的支撑区域仍然有效。# }" g' f# ~1 |" B
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