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[lastpost] => 2751307 美元暴跌之际押注比特币为何可能让散户投资者破产 1753253297 不洗脸都帅
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币(BTC)价格受宏观经济数据拖累回落——本周能否守住9.5万美元关口?(转)
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比特币价格上涨取决于流动性支持和与股票的明显脱钩。( P8 `8 E" } m( {. n0 b0 p' H7 P
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要点:
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. y* _, W0 _$ D2 c* s3 t 比特币价格与美国国债收益率一同下跌,显示出投资者正在转向更安全的资产。
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Strategy公司价值42.8亿美元的比特币买入以及股市的强劲表现,帮助比特币维持在9万美元以上。# R& l4 C8 \$ m- E
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若要真正突破至10万美元,比特币需要与股市“脱钩”,并出现更强的流动性信号。" h9 f1 v/ N- B% \0 \/ X
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2025年4月28日,比特币出现了剧烈回调,下跌2,000美元至93,500美元。这一价格波动与美国国债收益率的下降高度同步,表明交易者正在寻求相对更安全的资产。# B. ~1 r" O* v: d' \
7 t7 L8 S M2 q, L1 _" c0 Z 虽然比特币交易者对过去一周6%的涨幅感到适度满意,但对于比特币为何始终未能稳居95,000美元以上,市场仍存不确定性。
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( i3 @4 q9 M2 \/ g# L 比特币在触及95,500美元后的突然回调,与美国国债收益率的盘中表现如出一辙。收益率的下降表明投资者愿意接受较低回报来持有债券,这意味着对安全资产的需求增加。这一走势表明,主要金融市场的风险偏好突然下降。# F0 U3 y! ]$ ~7 j) F
" |# f0 I' M0 a! B) U4 S3 l 天朝降关税提振乐观情绪,但美国贸易担忧逆转市场情绪& ?" ?1 i7 H l( Z
8 n' g. v: \6 O% d 据《新闻周刊》4月25日报道,天朝悄然将部分美国产半导体及电路板进口的关税降为零,此消息在周末提升了投资者的乐观情绪。值得注意的是,美国小盘股指数——罗素2000指数在4月28日继续保持上涨势头,接近三周来的最高水平。- J" N u% F# Z4 C0 w6 z: X* r
* c G9 T/ P, L1 ] 然而,这一积极情绪在美国财政部长Scott Bessent接受CNBC采访后发生逆转。Bessent在采访中表示,贸易协议的责任应由天朝方面承担。
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美国罗素2000指数期货(左)vs 比特币/美元,1小时图。来源:TradingView / Cointelegraph& n8 x6 M1 S; ?( P b
5 s4 o- Y. K9 ]$ b) x: A0 u! x' Y$ } 尽管贸易紧张局势升级使经济衰退风险上升,但许多美国公司目前公布的第一季度财报表现强劲。根据FactSet的报告,73%的企业盈利超出分析师预期。
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1 r, P' A% p: D 比特币多次未能维持在95,000美元以上的价格,似乎与更广泛的宏观经济担忧有关。此外,比特币尚未成功与股市趋势脱钩,这表明投资者尚未完全信服其在潜在经济衰退期间作为避险资产的有效性。; U, z/ ]* g! N, K6 b5 _
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此外,有观点担心近期将比特币价格维持在90,000美元以上的上涨动能,很大程度上是受自3月中旬以来Strategy斥资42.8亿美元购入BTC的驱动。而此前批准的普通股发行计划已有97%被使用完毕,这也引发了外界对Michael Saylor持续增持战略长期可持续性的质疑。
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比特币表现挣扎,强劲财报季与宏观经济忧虑形成对比/ r! |' Y @% d, e
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尽管股市受益于强劲的财报季表现,但比特币价格受到宏观经济环境恶化的预期拖累。/ I% r: `! l0 @8 Y3 }
1 G6 K G; D' u8 O5 M 美国3月份成屋销售创下两年多来的最大月度降幅,环比下滑5.9%。与此同时,据CNBC报道,天朝方面也提出计划,以扶持就业、帮助出口企业应对由于消费者需求疲软导致的工厂减产局面。
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在当前全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下,比特币若想持续突破10万美元关口,仅靠一周现货比特币ETF的强劲资金流入是不够的,尤其是在Strategy同步大量购入比特币的情况下。, v. ?% H* U! E( t; P/ `% E# z. t+ I
& R. ]5 S2 @) N, r6 A( G. x; ] 若投资者希望相信比特币将在2025年创下历史新高,该资产必须展现出更明显的与美股趋势的背离迹象,并提供更多证据表明各国央行将加大流动性投放以防范金融危机。
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7 @: h/ S$ j6 s( ~: Y 目前,交易员的关注焦点是美国利率的走向,以及美联储是否可能逆转资产负债表政策,从而终结持续逾两年的货币紧缩周期。' J6 x$ _$ k* L; {
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