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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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7 ^' M$ y' a  [+ b# P     平手中水,主队有利  J0 S, J' z* n6 X+ h% `2 D& G
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
0 h% R$ Z5 W$ T/ q     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:6 i2 j2 C' Y! v) A9 }' E
     英超主队  s" B( f0 m8 E8 f4 K! K2 J2 k
     胜:13场 48%
) e6 V& ?7 z1 u# u5 }) X' ~) K/ y     平:5场 17%
+ P$ ?& n% w6 n' B     负:9场 35%7 F$ V7 {# {) l( B! `
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
% F; x. H, v/ m" e" R" s     ; b/ ^1 B' K( N) B3 `/ X- Y
     一、初盘阶段8 Q6 [8 M& }- ^% b
     具体到水位如下:
$ O' X, i! f* m5 B2 T0 C9 Q: _8 ?+ H2 i     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负! R/ r! D& z6 l- E4 Y3 r
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负) s8 a" A8 L) f3 h) F4 B% T5 T: ]
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
+ B; x0 i" L) U; m     
( b; B; \# _' z6 t     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。5 R! N$ [9 |1 f
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。+ A1 D# k$ c5 O3 a6 N# c2 l0 |
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
) l1 P8 }( G8 A8 S! L) G. j     $ s. X$ O2 [4 ]7 x7 Z
     二、临场阶段
% _4 ^* }7 x( R" k     % a; J4 e4 G: g- I5 z# S& M: e
     具体到变盘和水位如下:7 t4 A+ I3 X/ W8 ^7 d
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
% y7 t0 F# }/ [6 Y% C     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
0 u2 B2 y3 G) p) ^$ f  ?2 h: A     
6 \0 A7 W" R& t% y     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。2 I0 x, T+ P5 v- F9 \
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
' U% E( C: w, |" f) W" E. S     2 G5 ?8 f& Z4 |# v6 m' |/ f
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
3 H; U+ h/ e! E: _* `     初盘:0.82平手1.04
( _2 X7 L, P3 t+ }4 P, r5 s) A: t     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.855 i2 ?8 @. G; a5 P
     
2 r. |0 _* _) q7 k     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆0 s  p# ^( `% x% V) f" c
     初盘:0.76平手1.100 D* k% A* J  z& x  D
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
& m  r: h* r! b. G; j     , s$ \1 ]; ]  g! _/ y. `; i
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
: ~8 s6 B$ }9 S  `, ?     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 s& B6 y  ~6 F7 p: I% n     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
0 K' l5 L! J! E( L8 N     ) x9 f3 |7 F: L8 y6 q
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆/ u' }( C; `  u9 U- t
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
& D! N2 L6 b* o4 _     终盘:1.12平/半0.74' z1 H1 x# X# |4 q# a( m
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。2 C" w+ D& g! p6 L: u
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。3 V# w4 \5 P% }7 `  v; m: j; L
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。/ |! T1 o9 F* q9 D0 p
     # Z0 s+ _0 k/ V$ ~9 Z1 C; U( b
     三、球队表现$ x; Q: [- E! a
     % N5 U. ^- V4 n5 [5 s  h( f
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
5 m, ^+ p3 _9 T8 r; ^     7 e/ C( R& u: V1 v' I) z7 w
     四、投注要点
* n7 P0 a1 U8 M7 |. {     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
* B1 z0 g" S7 V  l3 u1 F# @     要点2:平手降盘、走两头8 x+ T. l4 W( H9 F
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
1 h( T. R, ?! J' R3 F2 C! c: Z& d3 x     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大7 |$ F# G6 m& l: t" ^# ^; l
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
7 T& ]) H& w3 ~3 k     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大5 i, w0 n! V8 R  {
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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