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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
1 ^/ j8 V( L2 w+ p( J
; W: p( v2 ^3 \( B 平手中水,主队有利. D6 I5 y2 Z( E
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
W( H$ ^7 m" }' q% | 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:+ s" c8 i# J6 L4 R
英超主队
8 T/ A& r K5 o' J5 h3 y) ? 胜:13场 48%
. D/ l k1 m1 d 平:5场 17%
9 G: s* y2 w/ w, ^6 o* n6 M 负:9场 35%0 A) u: B! C- @/ `! y6 L
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
, g% g! j V' q
0 l1 y( i" C- R 一、初盘阶段' z1 e( d% I+ ]4 L5 B! _
具体到水位如下:
1 M5 J' D, }6 Y9 y0 n) ~ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
8 W( p" o3 m8 T9 @* v! p 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
8 O) O3 }5 i* @6 z- W 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
( f1 G! m! L. A v/ E : A, b8 s. j- E1 y
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。4 C) w3 l# O' ~
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。' k0 D) H3 ~; E* F" ~4 z+ b
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
! \2 r1 x- a5 L$ {3 q3 U& S8 a. k ; |! o( P6 k# L1 M6 M7 W6 G0 w" T
二、临场阶段
6 I! g9 A2 Q4 [6 ~7 l# l, b 9 [0 m0 ^, L+ X! {5 `1 Y- [/ g m' N
具体到变盘和水位如下:
2 o2 A( `+ T7 v 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
: z+ z. P( Z: ~% _5 f 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
2 b+ w3 R9 @% M, J. o3 l
+ G' i" |' n: W6 ~$ c* @/ [/ b 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。6 x! D) h& K6 m& c3 X
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
- K/ M, W8 S9 a1 _' c8 z: I ) i h: D, Y! `; v# p
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
1 K5 c* r( k! K/ F9 W4 b, s 初盘:0.82平手1.04
t+ B- Z/ v* q9 y! Q! m: d# p( z0 b& F 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85( k7 y+ X. @9 u1 L* g. e
* | q' c+ j6 e: M0 d4 M+ U 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆0 N" N3 b/ ]! z$ H. a( ~
初盘:0.76平手1.10" @7 q& i9 \6 b, ^
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
) j9 T) Z/ z' c8 `" | W" R! L) ~2 W0 h, I
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技. X& u1 D) |+ S9 I
初盘:0.82平手1.04% ^! J, r6 H8 Z; ]+ b3 e
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
# M2 I; ~8 U9 u7 ~9 q( t0 p( u
! b) L6 @- Q8 h) R" b2 {+ H 伯恩利2-1西汉姆" [5 ?8 A, M2 `
初盘:0.88平手0.988 Z5 t- s7 Q1 g" r' d
终盘:1.12平/半0.740 \# L8 g+ T; P( ]. s
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
% p/ f: l% Y+ q 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。9 y8 X# G5 Y9 v* p+ Y
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
& \, I5 b2 P6 M
1 D; n4 I/ F& r$ C. j5 W, R 三、球队表现
, w8 u. {- p' X) H9 K% o) r! q: r1 a
% z) z. k+ E1 X3 U 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。8 E! k4 _1 ]! v( N
2 @9 N( @' I M5 B- } {% _) W
四、投注要点2 z9 u0 h% R: ~8 e
要点1:平手中水、主多不败4 W: b1 H9 Q4 w) [9 g
要点2:平手降盘、走两头. h" x. S' X& T( e W
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败( k* Y/ ^+ x' \ q7 n
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大. G* Q8 R) x( c: L9 v
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任+ ]2 o1 {1 F; }/ M o
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
l% h% j+ @' r* l4 b# B* z 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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