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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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' N6 I3 V) F$ v1 X% _( R尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、8 S: p4 w M$ e* k# V( A6 U
提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。* M9 t9 R7 p+ t3 R- G- m* d
Peter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上" c, t6 r( r, P. H4 [* b- |: `
市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资
% L$ A% U8 y$ }需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」
+ x7 v& o- ` R C, }# c, T QPeter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都! F) X) c% M; O8 E; ]
证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金
# Y, J/ B! c& N; M9 |: w, `的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。
8 Q4 z- g$ I8 {- z" _! f' m [( l然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档
' H' W% o. ^4 C* k比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF& B) X/ o8 a- b# R: j: S- R& E
的申请。
# ], {. A0 S* }Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月* d7 X( F7 Z {* c! I: F, d* w
10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请5 v' i: U5 G3 [+ C$ ~# Z5 `6 V# Z, v
案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见
& z, I& a1 l7 d+ ]0 T8 A. G" Q到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。
& K' F* \9 n7 G7 q7 L) M- p该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地
) w/ A. s1 r5 i3 r/ S位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。
7 K% \! O( D0 Q) ^0 d3 l许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在% n5 G- ^7 \) _: K9 I8 J! s
1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且
, V! N0 t7 a; l( C2 Y) Y几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。* Q- D- @0 H1 y* @
彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他7 ?6 \7 D1 U- _0 z" ~8 ?8 N c
相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。 |: w- o. I4 x" e) w4 X
6 D" ]& C/ A. U
& T) u) x8 `. d& _+ F# R
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊
8 ^6 Y1 x' U# v( T3 a- o1 b: l |
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