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[虚拟币交流]
K33 Research：比特币现货ETF批准后70%可能会跌！（3日转）
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' O+ S' \8 S+ _( a f" t+ l$ t K随着美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对比特币现货ETF的审批截止日逼近，市场密切注意任何% a1 ?2 G* ]$ L0 u( D9 h9 E
风吹草动。K33 Research的分析师Vetle Lunde在昨(2)日的一份报告中就指出，预计在1月8日至1月10日间，4 O/ |, @5 S; r1 i
SEC将对比特币现货ETF做出决策，但影响市场行情的消息可能会提前公布。
- x: G5 j$ G3 Q$ h8 nLunde强调比特币现货ETF的批准将可能引发一场「卖出新闻」事件，即市场参与者在重大事件发生后迅速卖出以
1 E5 E2 A, ~. o0 u获利。Lunde估计这种情况发生的机率为75%，而批准后推动价格上涨的可能性为20%，被拒绝的可能性为5%。- e1 {( ?; W$ h- V0 j2 Y9 C
比特币泡沫迹象* e6 o+ q% e; r
Lunde还指出了市场的泡沫迹象，特别是在芝加哥商品交易所(CME)观察到的期货溢价高达年化50%。此外，过
f7 h4 f+ B; M# O8 v! ^0 l0 p, Q0 _$ j去三个月比特币的未平仓合约增加超过50,000枚BTC，显示机构投资者预期ETF将获批准，并因此增加了多头部
; A \. Y3 c8 f. Q2 v( ^2 r位。
j: l. a& Y) E: Z同时在散户投资者方面，比特币永续合约的资金费率一度达到+72%的年化高点。Lunde解释道，距离ETF审批还
2 W6 l) _/ V% B9 d0 O有一周的时间，空头不愿进入市场，这增加了现货市场的永续溢价，并使多头成本高昂。4 _* ` _6 _: c1 q0 x
“在ETF审批之后，多头的激进杠杆可能会导致市场出现多头挤压(轧多)。
1 k3 l j- K* h短期看跌长期看好
0 o1 m1 G( O9 x$ ^1 ^0 F; |总结来说，Lunde指出，比特币现货ETF被大量预期，但是否过度预期将取决于产品推出后的资金流入。他预计，
8 q* C& y$ j) q8 `目前的比特币价格上涨将在ETF审批日达到周期高峰，原因是短期交易者的大量获利回吐和溢价的不可持续性。
$ w3 W; U+ j& I- F. a: [, K; X3 G然而从长远来看，他看好通过潜在的现货ETF的资金流入，加上4月份比特币减半事件的供应减少，将在今年进一
* ?# n' L/ Y- K3 x8 Z步推动市场。
+ @( b6 G( Z' T/ x( t3 q5 y t( R彭博分析师：SEC可能延迟决策4 U8 F% U" g- x r$ e f# Y. J8 V
对于比特币现货ETF是否会在1月通过，彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas也提出保留的观点。+ z5 [3 ^ u; u. L
Balchunas接受Cointelegraph访问时表示，尽管被拒绝的可能性较小，但如果SEC「需要更多时间」来考虑，这
2 m+ d" d) J, _5 b( y个月可能会拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请。Balchunas和同僚James Seyffart给出90%的批准机率，也就是说可能有, s& N" q/ K4 f& Z) X7 t! o8 B9 h
10%机率遭到拒绝。
3 I7 [7 i$ c( [但Balchunas表示，鉴于SEC和比特币ETF发行方所投入的大量时间和努力，他认为在最后关头直接拒绝比特币/ P! v/ O8 q% C) i1 t& T5 `% h& g
ETF的可能性不大。
3 U7 b" U2 K- Q( e$ H" ~& h: S% H7 B此外，如果SEC确实发出直接否决的决定，Balchunas认为基金发行方可能会跟随加密资产管理公司Grayscale的
: ^8 p( J* K8 H9 u脚步，对监管机构提起诉讼。
8 p2 B7 t$ `$ r7 U他说：人们已经投入了太多的金钱和努力，现在不可能放弃。所以，这不会是结束。
3 X6 e) y. J8 o! f: O0 p: } H. X+ U9 [/ A" @5 w9 a
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