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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人0 ^$ @3 \ B6 ~
' V% S6 I) L; O+ k& N" {) A
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
1 j- I/ v! g& ?. `8 M# C' i- `7 G ~. |* v& ], i! V
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
$ C4 w" Q; v% j1 X
) Q/ ^+ Q6 Z9 g9 ~4 |0 ~的千禧一代。
% @/ l; m" f8 N+ e从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
5 T" H2 M5 W; E, X e( H$ j, n' D+ m. n5 ~2 G/ V% n
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“# t) m# d4 \/ b0 p6 ~6 [" f! e( J
. i7 ]) R U! X. t6 w' z2 p
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加; M7 y8 X) I0 {2 f
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
: U) a* D4 M+ @* Q7 Y. Y' s8 \$ V! z/ I; D. I
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成; b/ O: K& M* F
6 J3 U0 ?. m! R# ?6 t的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
2 J8 i- f3 g' H# ]7 Z/ y9 `
9 Y( e6 b4 F+ k3 \' y( `, e' W8 I报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
5 |5 n/ V8 ^: w+ c5 j8 F: P$ T4 B' ~/ j1 c1 D0 @4 H* s
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
! j. X" a5 h% g1 C+ c3 s# v2 d r: H' O- D7 G' G1 L) z
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。: @# E! ^; R/ ^
4 m, i+ ]( z' M. z6 x* k: B
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
1 X: D" ?( D, L. t; _% P2 K# t% X2 N9 @) R* _) B3 l2 E. l
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
" T. @9 N7 L! j0 ~0 L2 w& J5 ^; y) l
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
; K9 z/ c3 ?5 M- u8 s$ W, w
3 g9 N/ H! C: r/ r. H6 v' l世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
9 P1 q6 ^1 E8 {3 ]" ?# v
9 T6 \6 _$ e, e/ [1 Z& D, [传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
- B* x" a/ _0 Z( \8 P& w. e: K; `0 c" J
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
6 \; Y# Q+ }% R2 D$ A
; k' }, N3 |3 w代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
" u7 Q7 @+ i/ ]: b
k+ F2 o8 L2 r+ g$ ~" V" D本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
7 P8 Y" W, \+ ?7 F& l7 f* e+ n
4 `1 D3 |8 F5 o# w) M系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
9 X9 l0 k- x/ y( l6 {5 Z7 o
L& Z+ [) l1 d! w# G+ `6 [; m2 a币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
9 G9 ]0 x# }9 y# v5 i
- [9 Y" {/ F+ T4 n未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
; j. j9 o) C2 x1 T6 a9 ?
/ R/ R# w/ R3 c7 V. l/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
8 H6 D4 I$ q4 b/ F6 N4 P2 }2 z, I- `5 [* O6 o% S
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