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[打法交流] 百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略
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1#
很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。
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1 j* F8 R8 ~' E4 y2 L一般来说,
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二连赢的概率是25%  O  @( V: s0 x5 g/ ?: Y

" R( H& W9 A7 x5 S  E三连赢的概率是12.5%
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四连赢的概率是6.25%+ A; O! Z* L6 m$ p

5 X& q- i) C# z7 i. }" j: s" H0 w……
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' i# O; K/ j" E& e  ]6 \8 s9 j十连赢的概率是0.09765625%
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这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。. p2 s) @0 y! E+ L
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百家乐的真实概率含义是:/ ^/ x6 Y, N3 K0 C( M7 j9 B
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假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球, L0 I3 ~) K9 @' q7 h

5 T# d4 V) C0 E* S" `2 v1 \% a1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。" j9 m* Q9 L( y* ]

, u, @0 j' }2 Y你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。8 u' d) \7 t, ]8 @8 W) R

2 y2 v) H& B+ ]你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。
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另外一个说法是,/ ?# x% u6 v  P$ G% g1 N+ i
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。
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7 |8 D7 ?' j5 A' |7 ^2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。
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$ w. A4 C  k8 Q" c" u8 @# N再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。# m5 ], X) j1 L1 i! Y
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平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。
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对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。* W' S; Z6 w: F
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举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。
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# A& {- S8 G0 ~4 D4 n6 \9 c第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化* N; v3 l- B# K7 c
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第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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8 i& y) Y# s& O8 S% j7 _& s首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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5 V! J  S: ?- |# d* X- X2 z事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。( I, p& D# w3 s6 G

+ I# J0 o$ c5 P+ {# ~# r, `因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。- \" _+ Y: u- A9 _9 M/ T  r; u9 ?& m$ R

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这个概率还是需要运气加成的
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看来,只有跟随运气才有一线生机呀
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4#
不管是概率还是策略都值得了解
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
又找了方法,不只一个吧
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6#
百家乐的玩法也是来学习下了解下啦。
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