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3 Z. l. f% a* s2 e+ r; p, }* Y
很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]. Y7 L" X* g! W5 p9 w+ D' U; b/ p0 X
' W, d" Z3 R! L: M/ p. ^2 n大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
$ P+ A" Y' T+ e; K: O5 ]7 Y有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。 }2 B, l6 c& O% R) n' h8 e5 z
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。* G* c# h% C' A8 i6 Z; q
, c/ f$ h5 ?6 f* U
[1]9 h6 ]( f0 P5 Q: p! D# o! X5 Z
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。& \6 p; g P. l5 i* P- U
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。
1 j6 B" R. V& B/ B- F, r' N1 y立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
9 ~* Z! N4 j7 ~# n% b& ]这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。/ f1 I3 E' C: n3 |
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
7 Y7 b3 p7 N4 ]. Q; w( r4 v主胜的开法:
2 o9 \# Z0 z8 Q2 {+ i5 A9 R威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
6 B8 U! G3 v9 |& g你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?% M2 M: h. {9 f, e2 c9 E7 r
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
- K& o, K8 w" S- B0 }主负:
% X1 S! F. E& x威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。; o, n- Z" U1 G1 M2 X
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
% `5 `& J" Z5 ?0 q1 k平局:0 b5 m B F- S% t" [* {: }: H
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
+ S! s1 W$ U+ b& M, D5 R' P
' g+ J# J4 Z" q0 A[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马0 C+ j5 E/ c% c6 n
威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。. k4 d, S6 m; G% n2 B
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。3 l* x* I2 g5 c* `
思维与上场一样。6 Y5 A- g* `( O! P: H- S. z4 k
' Q9 _# [/ i# L1 R1 f7 A- C* @- y[3]
/ f% r* G/ T& d# i6 {西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
# q) ^/ z" W8 H3 T威廉:1.28/4.5/8。0 Y# b h* X' x0 ?
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。: n7 R- Y: H3 W, V; Y5 b
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
3 a& U: G. o; @( g( b! ?7 M- Z广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。' W9 G5 G' m; m* o: |9 _5 ~6 `) q
主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
3 D) d# Q" @' z现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。5 A: r, m l# y8 K! n
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。+ X1 a4 A1 D; z( A2 c
* M; U) j0 g* u) H5 l* {
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
4 L* n0 R5 B/ }结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。" ~: s( ~8 k, k* n4 k1 @2 @0 D4 J$ m7 |
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。, v i( G& z* u" M; \* v) z) [
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
) X3 b/ @! G l0 }( p) R# J
/ K+ B+ Y7 K6 A4 d. K很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。9 ]! H+ Y0 ?- b+ [& l
7 f% g* E0 T$ ~* D1 B
例如:
* m- N' N* a; i7 r, P( B; c西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
A& f3 |" w. }6 s! q+ a# b& [ k7 `双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
5 X% u. x9 m$ W% B所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。1 o4 k4 ~( f; u. ^
4 I% A9 r W4 h n3 z欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
9 x7 d5 A: x* a3 g+ @$ N当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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