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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 * _' P6 E4 [% f8 S5 T. e+ k% {7 w
' a5 [6 B& Z' N+ t" s其实原文标题不是这样的+ a4 p- S& C" S- m3 Z, R1 J
* S6 B! ]4 V( Y- C
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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# m9 {5 T& u8 ~( b) q% }
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...! B+ s2 d: m" o- j# ?
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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5 E. { \7 v& z& c 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
3 K2 o V3 R1 ]7 x# ~9 V, l7 d' K& b' p
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」# k& r! C1 v% o+ m
% ]7 K$ E4 ~' m, t; c「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
! a- B! j. ^$ b3 S, k「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
, ~+ e1 O! G( D' ]; d
4 E5 J% Q3 C8 W% y1 M: }# s 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
- P2 `1 f# F+ W1 |
& \; @! M4 B9 T+ C( N接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
- d ^0 V$ `: K' [1 m3 _因此铜板较容易出现正面。
/ m3 o( U6 P& o+ p长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
" y+ t$ H' R& V& S, Z因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
2 F% l2 f6 e. v/ G* s& O心想赢定了。0 S- W# W- `; N9 r
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，
6 C: t6 \) `( c" c3 [4 M赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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& J# ^* @% _3 W/ [) @+ M& S# b6 D# s赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，5 N- C6 [( `# E7 d+ Z; d% ~
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。/ K- y) W* V o+ {( ?0 `+ F5 K8 c
4 |0 ^& q5 V4 U f
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
3 `# @# q9 o7 O0 ?6 b! g4 N* }, [他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
) v8 w( H6 z( B* n/ H* D3 X
上帝回答道：
5 Q9 h: [; Y& z( ]" c「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」9 r) ~. a& P+ {9 }) Y2 S/ b
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
6 C" }$ {# e$ N! f「而不是先发生在我身上。」' D, A/ @% f7 w: ?# i
- C4 U8 ~9 s! W& g3 A c6 f 赌徒恍然大悟，' H1 d/ Y6 E# ]& D1 m5 t2 e0 R
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，! k( }6 b9 v; T, V) a0 r8 g
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！5 o/ h1 k, H8 U, l# V! R ]
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」. t" H9 |7 b- P2 c- S+ ]
上帝说完便不见踪影。 6 h; p' N) b2 g9 S/ y( k! _
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
6 F6 k7 r$ ~2 }8 n0 l. ]1 ~: o若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
2 s5 ~, J) ~: G& o: M) k: [1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
- E, u+ r) L( g/ b% ~, ?. ]对赌徒十分有利。
1 {! g0 M$ h/ R 1 ?( z& m8 t+ K) X# x
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，( M! j/ f' W# l+ w
在还没掷到1000次之前，
. i, W5 Y K: m/ k仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。1 k1 x) Y9 Q: V& l; `3 `3 ~
* u+ z, o6 l% u# h 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。& {; \ f6 Y t% O$ v; w5 c
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。' G" l( a# |+ e6 y4 d: f& A1 Y
3 I- s5 }$ U' w+ T. }- |2 b
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，! K' G. z- L$ } M$ q! @4 K' Q* ?$ i
4 C; h% ~6 c+ o3 W" e" C9 }" c8 L1 y 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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