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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 & y T0 L' h% p8 a) H! v0 ]
( N1 g- R4 I1 T1 i& n其实原文标题不是这样的# N0 W( \, D+ M
- K/ d6 S5 [# o这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!* P$ W. g; v/ ^$ W- ]
1 H4 B, {6 x+ ^- u' x- L" Y& ]' I
( x' [& q* W+ ^5 d; E" B8 H m, U
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
; u+ G4 x m6 a D, p# b他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
0 h" I! r- w+ T9 r3 u% b
: c* ^) a- ~9 E7 j 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
; U, Q' N/ l; m2 Z1 @8 k2 M
! }: A7 p, R0 s8 ^& b; H) n 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
1 t% r5 k$ L) H6 F' h5 G! v& C / t6 y5 b' Y% q9 @
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 , g5 Z/ ]. C Y+ O: N. }1 p% o, s7 }2 E
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」2 p. i! }9 n: e8 b" H' W
% w2 V$ f* z1 x6 |3 ` 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
! `5 c: b( ?& N8 u: G* v) T; w
$ q; F& p+ f9 {6 d) W- m接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
8 S! ~& t6 J$ ^" i. l8 t, e因此铜板较容易出现正面。
: A9 F- w+ H- D$ Y' ] s* \ G( w( d长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 $ c4 o1 ~6 u' J, X& v [
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。2 k7 L( ^/ I3 Q% F8 r0 g
心想赢定了。$ g" M$ i2 L7 E( t& O5 F
2 [ m' f$ e1 ]$ x1 F% o没想到开始不到半刻钟，
3 U: J% A1 q8 U3 U9 L j& t3 b赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
/ F o0 ^/ T+ L& f" Z( N! `: v M7 m! r
# x/ m( F6 R1 Y' Z' { G赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，' o0 C# {+ H! W
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
' K. \: J2 |) j& P 8 |# b( u* v6 I# H
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?' b) v, i& ~: h! w
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 1 m4 J: Y3 d6 s' z; Z
上帝回答道：# E, N w% e8 \2 F' c: X
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」. |1 ^7 m! ^; U- F' q. [
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」2 b# ~+ P9 W+ W
「而不是先发生在我身上。」3 Y+ A6 }% X q) [' X! i; P
6 h0 q( q! `5 I% v0 U# b& U 赌徒恍然大悟，: @# F7 x# ~9 F" N2 C
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，2 H8 k% y; o4 n
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
6 f9 |/ j Z; s9 ^2 p. E8 J, s2 i1 D! u「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」3 n' L! B7 P& w5 F
上帝说完便不见踪影。 1 Z5 O9 v. b |$ c4 D* G
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
) H. d! A1 m+ v C/ U( r+ v若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，7 b' W% H, Z, h! s: m
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
0 l9 f/ e4 m' a9 Z8 \1 x6 {对赌徒十分有利。
2 v5 {* g9 ^! Z
7 ^% h+ A# `7 E* i9 J$ D# |但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
/ T; N$ y" V( Q0 L% C在还没掷到1000次之前，% @. c7 R/ |( ] Y7 d
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
9 k( n) I8 P4 J/ K `" @- m1 ~
: \+ D. p7 A# O% d! o, C+ W1 F7 e' j* ^ 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。: f+ t# {* ]/ o* D3 h2 G5 Z. |* D
& a3 N9 D H& d# l
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。6 v# ]2 U; L y, J4 O' N
7 K# b) I3 O9 o+ N* f
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，" O9 R& ]& _4 z7 c, {% _0 d
, |4 s6 M& b I2 e2 M 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ # X W/ |" D- B* _4 i
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