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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
1 K& |& T6 G! M' }1 N% W+ ^1 H2 _( T$ R9 a+ B4 @, f+ X4 l+ P
其实原文标题不是这样的5 H' v5 `. q0 N
% g. E( U+ w$ F" U x5 ^) R3 q4 A这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...8 L# D& u+ d2 M' _
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。4 n/ o' z( g# f% [
k4 {$ [3 m5 u; W. O' l v1 q 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。9 Y% [; O$ ^7 d, A+ `" D
$ b+ D8 V/ ]4 L, ?/ u: N# w. d# i
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」. D5 d% _6 s! b7 r8 g
5 O# q& y; U, T) w+ \7 Q7 z, Z {「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 m: Y( U8 p" E8 L
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
& O9 |/ T- r) @6 t) Y4 s* o: k9 d! b2 q' U& P
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
* `! V6 o$ Q0 B* F3 v ) K, q" Z. n6 o& P8 X
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
0 T4 H4 V# J$ V$ i因此铜板较容易出现正面。1 ]% t% U$ |8 |" R
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ' o" Y& e* }" V+ G1 S+ O& z0 S
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。/ b' o- J; y7 K2 B5 l+ {
心想赢定了。' ]1 d$ g7 p$ c
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没想到开始不到半刻钟， L8 V) [4 X. r: _/ d2 P, X" Z0 d+ R
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」+ h& I$ a+ ?; I
' r. J+ K4 i2 p* f+ i
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，8 N4 B2 n& a" ^5 {' O
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。+ a' e2 z8 b3 B
* M/ ~( Y' ?: _6 I( h) x, Y赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?9 F. V5 Z& j' ^ v
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 0 D5 W, ~4 x% ]0 m8 z6 ]; W3 e
上帝回答道：
$ ]$ T+ T, ?4 }$ E「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」# g! x$ w" h7 U# ?, u, d/ ^& B. w
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
. b2 I; F' O# s" Q8 H1 T「而不是先发生在我身上。」
- o ^# a; Y& G- k9 W: j# L. H& i, q) c0 B3 g: v% X
赌徒恍然大悟，
0 q- k1 ?% _6 j3 f; I- v原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
+ N; I2 K: o5 U/ e: R3 ^' p: I竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！- i5 K+ w2 z0 C( j8 ?
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
$ A* |. d) l$ B- {& ]0 e! ^上帝说完便不见踪影。 ! ~4 t# u# h/ t& L- h
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
; O$ }* @* D& X5 Q( d% X若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，+ K" M( }! O9 L' a8 V1 c
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
' C7 y% V! y/ I: @' Q7 v1 z对赌徒十分有利。 [! { W6 |. }4 y* n& L: S0 \
n9 A2 G4 O z) }0 \
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，) y' t7 Q; ^' F/ ]; v
在还没掷到1000次之前，
8 n% L* g( \( U+ u# w& d仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
, x* z4 H# v9 ]/ Q) i/ ^
* m3 z( H8 ?" _: E 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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/ K/ \) J) q M O$ M! ^ 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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# k7 W; r$ B* x+ U$ L9 x, W 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，1 x0 |* S9 P. m/ F3 c
" s ^6 j# {9 t- M4 {0 ^8 s 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 8 _$ b% c. A; B/ x$ q5 k( o% j+ P
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