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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
% l# V( }% V* U1 h; e- O7 n/ J' U; o6 g4 ]* n1 |: [
2 W2 B) i- u9 d9 c/ v+ K西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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6 F6 ?* ]# j( t# z y1 a. @以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:+ e4 z2 e( V6 Q' x+ c+ Q) ?! W# @. i
6 G, {) q2 R6 b
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?: d6 a; Y" q! r/ R9 h! e4 S* Y. J
( k) y" s8 \7 X5 L2 ~
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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1 U5 U3 [* Q, [; |- l+ x以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?' |! ?( N ]9 I! _6 J2 j
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5 V' E, x% p% U5 Q; ]9 }. t" X9 t; P盈利可能性
$ ^1 f* m( V5 ^0 [ Z( k0 y* W) D' X
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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u& T, w9 E( v) h! W+ f增值
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# j- Z5 n: I: S. G许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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3 C2 h o% f; [# F你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
' a) `- W! |/ f9 j! L/ V; k- C) F& t6 R% G; t
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么" y# o# x- @* F$ R0 [
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
, ^" F7 C0 x$ r. N0 G60%的机会你会一无所有
5 ]/ T) h5 B; Y0 Z" s预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 * a2 t! I' t% S% V
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。# z ^7 [* Q# V7 H G
2 F& G6 c; G& x+ ^) ?1 G+ ~* y# D# L基于增值的投注4 w8 T: W; I) I b5 O5 |: `
9 m6 H, E1 G4 m: y$ f凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。' x+ q0 {7 s0 P5 K5 ^, X }) I
$ E# T, s5 w6 K ^- _% y% @: l公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)& o& ^3 x5 w+ t2 g( J8 F% U4 `. Q
3 Q1 a1 a; t" w. g3 q
A=博彩资金
' y- o: a7 t& O! {, v; dP=获胜机会
" _* Y1 h/ d) R8 w: _. rO=总获得回报(包括投注本金), d0 R' u( ?2 T2 R+ M
0 t% n3 U& O9 D6 o: Q% _" Y首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。; Y# d4 j, W0 x2 p& U0 Z
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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& y, Q/ Y8 o! A7 n8 j1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)& [- m$ ~& m" X3 m
4 ^# m1 j" ^8 X
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)$ |/ j4 C+ d# ~
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A=0/ I2 H0 n; M1 y- O
1 @# p) C, N) T4 _
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢9 Y6 k+ N& K, h8 v
0 W5 l% J% y' A- |2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
5 Z7 x# N$ U# J! G, l9 y" x' [( h) m* @
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2), r" E* b9 S ^- j" E! b8 b
% j" u c) S+ ^, Y0 @" N7 E7 |
A=0.1* }9 J9 W" x2 i, o9 O7 K( V
$ s& x, I6 p k4 E8 n6 F结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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: B) }; R$ Z; V$ z* M3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)2 |! e8 Q) p' A0 L
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)( a& z* C1 z9 w" ~
3 _, H' e# r' Y* a
A= -0.2 ) c: f9 ]- X. a
) q6 C" P& { p) ?! f& j- F结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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