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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人* k$ B# N4 e* f
0 |/ m7 g6 i q) Q+ g认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
- ]: F: E: ^5 N5 O
! K7 i/ }6 S9 ]& a( `而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
/ Q8 |+ L8 S% L. S$ q2 G
+ \7 O! s1 M% b6 c5 `& V的千禧一代。
. g# ?- Y: t- L1 N5 q5 `) u" `5 V从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB$ v/ b. r3 T8 R* v
3 |' L i3 w, j4 H. B% h
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
- A. g% j; q) y: L' V9 v' @! i/ x5 k8 v) G+ Y0 a& V
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
; Y- T6 Z6 m% q! b2 [6 x7 i% U( ?9 R& [" ^$ j Z3 k2 Y p
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
7 p: V" P+ m$ }/ d* M
# I8 o" B& b+ u; i1 n) N, U; D《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成 I. ^/ c* ?3 Y" O, C* i# n2 U' {
% d" O4 w0 f( j% ~; T( ?/ F的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
; s% U ^8 Q( _: s$ i$ b6 h
0 A# e* e8 ^5 b7 I6 p4 k7 B. d2 b报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
4 K6 E, C7 E7 o) a, I3 S9 j/ r
/ N+ b/ s6 H: k10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
- ]% n# q, E- V1 i1 @5 l; @3 @" Z5 n' ?5 E* H) n' V
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
9 ^2 I; A9 x c3 Q% K. h4 e4 m5 D" j! D, v8 L* E0 t
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
! j, T, o2 E" ~ \" L9 `
9 X3 Q# ]' l+ H' j7 }' o4 Z; n息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
- M4 D$ v& y7 x7 K4 _9 [6 }9 S! Y! O/ E1 o) N7 y) `2 ~
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
- ]3 |* C5 j3 s- s$ R, L
* W" c3 j8 e A9 z世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富' f8 Y% {1 S i& H: U1 a" v: v
8 J5 w8 I6 v: p) I+ }; W传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
$ X$ Y) Q9 o3 e- O- U# o- Y. x9 P* B' P, l3 V- [% u' W" P
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
1 P3 N7 [1 K! i/ r" B9 H0 I# s3 V7 ~5 N: n8 Z: l5 @4 S8 E
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
" X% d, @- l0 m. K* u
! \& m: S" \$ l本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
; y. b' Q& X* b1 \
7 U0 E; N, s2 D+ \系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货5 p+ x/ r' D# g9 w3 \4 H
7 Y2 d. N1 N$ @ x, h0 L8 W% H币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致5 x6 s9 d) A4 ~- z% C, q' p1 h
+ |5 v3 d2 c: ?; C4 Q* ]
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富5 e6 A0 F0 H% a
& }7 p% L9 T" c& F6 l; m& j/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。% G2 O4 |0 a1 H; g1 Y
& V, u/ x- B8 ?2 m
8 t5 O/ e$ g" { g" u
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