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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解] E+ r7 y0 b; ^) N& m0 c! Y
0 |- C' {3 z; @& g! f6 k大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
" t' `9 L8 N T7 d3 G, \有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。
! i5 t0 V6 \1 |2 ^结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
5 y) U/ a- z* T6 B8 K9 \7 |9 x* t0 J! y- W2 r- c" J1 Q
[1]
0 |& y! A9 {! Z3 h英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
" c/ g; k0 s" G( }威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。, S7 G Q/ {" ?$ U
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
" O Y Z, `$ M* |; ~这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。& a3 W- l4 |4 Q; O
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。* p7 w, Y$ [3 t* S5 o! v" J
主胜的开法:# D+ m8 v3 O+ l1 b0 s! y
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。8 n3 _0 e8 k2 C! c1 w" ~
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?, T* M* p6 K u$ b1 d
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。0 X3 z! f" H7 k5 ~
主负:# v# B# o/ j, O. i/ ? {+ p
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。1 {4 U- y! o' B
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。7 {! ]' ?2 ^# \$ s
平局:) _+ b. y+ ?- P( n) e
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
# D# a' O$ M n2 e0 L2 x' o) \/ c! o' X1 k
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
2 [) q( J- t. ^1 _威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
2 u& e5 @( k, g; F) J' K2 J: t- I维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。2 l2 r1 I z' h8 J/ l
思维与上场一样。) u, K! t% V1 B7 ]1 c
) C0 {+ b) j# V% V$ m% s' m x
[3]: o: Q) W9 g- i- s& d, L @- L
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
9 h) E C' c- z威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
0 r. u) S4 N/ i: x立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。) c7 W. `; u, I B+ c h
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。( W$ Q( I; n) R1 n
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
9 h8 O5 t! S' b9 J8 w9 t; b主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。 }8 P5 \3 R" M7 w$ ?* i. K
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。7 d7 Z1 i, a: h5 ~" T- a8 {3 Z2 m7 d
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。
# K: }& p7 @$ v, C2 c' }: t( {/ |: W1 d. b+ l1 t5 E
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?0 I: `. X4 l. j' O9 }0 C9 ~
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。/ P6 t; a) F9 K! I2 `$ a
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。( `* z* G7 {& ~# \ N/ c( ^5 ^
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。8 W4 w& {0 S4 _' x% r
' L2 l- M% k5 R$ M1 a) w
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。
0 L: N4 W( B0 s- |, s. M9 F
' r P$ w/ v4 n1 W例如:
" T& g6 I+ v9 H8 m2 w西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
; A+ z, `' K' Q0 i* _4 _双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。 h# s7 r" N. a: G% J4 V8 _8 c
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
/ B2 Y- g1 d6 Q- b- H, c4 r2 e# l }2 t. R
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
3 Z- c. D- R/ n+ [# ?$ t% ~当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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