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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 7 c. n; q6 m4 x6 u/ I
, J) Y5 \: H$ h( v; i% H其实原文标题不是这样的+ v* V3 c! t4 W7 y
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!1 t, k0 }- e+ _: _. ~( K
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝..." D1 C ~: D K6 I
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。% O2 X7 P5 k2 I8 O1 G
O7 c8 H& Z8 { 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。0 l7 q7 K6 K" o3 I1 D( C( m+ l
8 b- [" n: z! ?9 {: D* r% t 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」5 b& G* z* D2 d) p1 r* N
4 J$ y3 N i) `7 _; N「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
% b2 q+ n t- H「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
5 c+ }, Z4 z& I$ G D) p A* `. w: I/ x8 P
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。' R9 I. L$ i H" f3 A! F) e
& V7 Z% m8 c! t* b' L* O& j接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，2 e) ]4 |0 Z, @. ]
因此铜板较容易出现正面。9 k6 b) Y$ I/ Q8 ^/ V
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 6 R8 ^" Z; S ^9 ~) Y
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
! ^3 x# F m0 a& Y2 ]心想赢定了。! [7 C% N" |# z. m$ i- U( [
5 ` J# q- m6 z; K# [: A; m没想到开始不到半刻钟，& B" b5 V7 ~8 @
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，2 L% d* k* u" E+ q' }
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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. y, Q. b& _' |8 `- |! x6 C+ O# }赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?5 l s. a, y; x! }: `5 g
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 , R1 c6 @' Q; w! D6 |1 w" `. O$ ~
上帝回答道：
/ f* C: I) c1 P+ \, K" I「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
9 ^. B H: J( G5 f「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
3 m/ B3 b' s0 ]7 s0 j「而不是先发生在我身上。」
* ?! C* `( X" m+ Q# v, v8 Q$ X, E, J! Z/ Q5 o2 C7 M+ Y6 W
赌徒恍然大悟，% n; ?- U- I0 r ?- _+ e6 I
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，7 E! p5 n5 O4 G, G( y
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！0 a# O! x1 k/ }* c' W% J( h
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
" T3 F5 Z6 h ]% U9 ]8 Y上帝说完便不见踪影。 4 ?; c* G5 n3 l: F4 X
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
$ ?, P4 o" y) I1 _" S3 u若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，; Q, ?4 O. D$ O% `$ f8 l
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
. [6 o2 S# x) A, R/ r5 y对赌徒十分有利。
( p' s4 z, q# B/ f4 c/ f( X 9 O7 ~( Y6 ^1 U2 a: B. ~5 h3 x1 T
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
6 d* m, c+ k4 m8 _, P d; G( L在还没掷到1000次之前，+ X9 I2 y; I+ _$ M2 J2 ~, Z
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。) j7 P* w. I/ B4 t, a% g
# V' A x* j! y; L3 @" z 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。 h7 E. w2 s$ V( R0 g
# y( ?$ ]* w) E7 ~ 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。) L8 b6 F6 H% \
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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