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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 3 B+ J4 o, g2 C6 [) O
& w+ O0 u5 V; l3 _8 W; n$ ~
其实原文标题不是这样的 [5 j' b3 |" N( \( a4 Y0 {8 t
$ M' P. X: |/ \! Q% j1 W这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...0 F, _+ Y3 n6 T& a5 v2 d
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。! `/ l' `. X8 d
0 X. \/ a) [0 y3 U 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。" q( U: S* L% M4 t
9 x( @: _4 y3 _6 n
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
2 N6 N2 H9 v' \: X w4 M. M, E: w, X! h# l
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 * J9 Z5 \; C8 H4 {! \
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
' b, ?1 t( v' f3 H2 ]6 g( M3 ~5 i2 H6 {2 ^
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。9 s# [8 t7 \$ |4 t
; f$ `' c0 `8 `7 z2 V5 V7 T$ [
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
! C+ I1 v' y+ k+ }. R* W因此铜板较容易出现正面。! W9 Y6 R5 h+ ?
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 & Y' v3 K: U" [; d1 ]* f
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
2 f; t. f4 V5 z1 {心想赢定了。
" Y$ Q& k1 \: D- m* |
* p- E* |) a. K" f0 Z$ r没想到开始不到半刻钟，
& Z) N/ D/ M( _. \* E赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，; M1 L4 K4 s. O8 w' m& u& u: L
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。; f. Y! S8 l" q2 g/ u
) `2 L, w) }" Y7 V; r$ g" Q, r赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
- Z3 l9 S( v' ?/ T e: n他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 & a9 o0 x* H' D# V( f
上帝回答道：2 x* R. D) D* D! M4 v' v
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」8 J7 N {' z' _8 d0 ?5 Z9 c# t
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
% q; ~! H2 W) _1 {「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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8 z# j8 D( R- ~2 F$ Z 赌徒恍然大悟，& r) G7 q1 y5 @! ]! n- j! M: L
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，4 f# v2 H3 A- ^0 f; ` L) f" @' F# a
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！$ ^ x" W. L8 E0 F2 K$ l( n
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」- c. F6 g* S/ ]! T+ R! ~
上帝说完便不见踪影。 + @6 e, l' M3 `$ {) M# F7 ?" y* B
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，! T/ ~% p" s+ x
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，& r `4 Q, y' l1 A$ p8 S
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
; ^7 c( E* K) r( p' A+ R对赌徒十分有利。" t6 V. f! J& K5 I/ K- m3 P
% l% C, r T8 Q/ v! T1 y但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，: a+ z0 [# J9 N7 y
在还没掷到1000次之前，/ P+ W [9 q* A8 ^# S; m
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。2 r8 h* Z9 ^/ }
: G9 P7 n$ B* m 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
) e6 w& Y M. Y5 H1 A* Y; V. {; j/ w5 M" d
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。$ L! a* w& ~( ^2 _* z* P# t
" Y$ x9 k! K4 H! M( @ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板， A* C1 W; Y- n, d9 t' j& [
8 T/ ~: A7 T9 ? L0 Y& Y- W/ D 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ . p. Q1 n2 j! p" A
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