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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。1 O z P. U& D4 v; p" N
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率! g. d9 k4 j- b0 [/ `* l; z
3 u$ A; I4 @+ `- _6 q! C' |
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
$ G# {7 ` ^$ \. ]& M0 ~. X s3 ]5 B8 S Z# c: |( B% ?8 m) _+ ?
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
. T1 D! M) Y7 R4 S e
5 @1 @- Z+ K+ _3 M很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?0 }, E( S. Y; r3 T) P" v: I
: ~% L7 M. l* @; I答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
+ o2 O( H; x( Q" k/ g; S! ~3 @: x' d" R( @4 ^, d( }
! ~/ U2 E( y0 L* ?. e
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?# V7 @2 S* H" | c. G) w
7 n- L4 b& ?- V' m. P, _0 Z! l& E4 F4 I `
盈利可能性2 Z/ [2 b# O+ x- ]$ M- q; Y
+ ~- I6 O/ Q* M
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。3 ^9 [+ F. B) B+ ?5 r6 l
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增值
1 u6 h( d4 |, w3 W2 e+ t+ E. s' [2 M' I+ O
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
4 v( K# s, S4 ?$ n
% D9 ^7 J+ y# D& E你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
+ i- N' T! l" Z1 w9 `
3 Y9 z& O- t1 H d: Y: J, z, b正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
! Z; j) q q! c/ w% j" H' }0 V0 Q' q
/ N+ V) E. w0 Y. o% j40%的机会你会收到150元的利润8 d# d9 P" u7 |5 b9 v; y4 u' ]
60%的机会你会一无所有
g/ p! `9 @' n6 h [预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 " L. [; U& y7 Z: x. W. L, o
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。' K3 z3 c. G. ~8 z5 w$ |5 }6 Y. F* [
. L8 [4 ]( C+ J6 U5 l增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
* a& s; }1 D4 M0 W+ }' X, w7 A3 z9 d7 @+ {- v# w9 }4 ~
基于增值的投注" q+ M: \' t O$ B. k% S
/ x5 p' z- A1 z" r凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。. D0 A# t6 F$ J1 V
7 N0 W) j7 c9 u公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)% X0 @- g$ l; e. ~6 d+ g
, T) y8 {# i- F7 ]. DA=博彩资金
/ I2 d/ t: q$ s, b9 v8 u- EP=获胜机会
1 S; ~( }) ]# R8 FO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
7 t8 o9 \ o$ B: k/ C
3 t( r. q/ ]! C# E9 X$ H- d# B首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。4 e% g% }4 R* l& G% g
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。9 n/ n2 R, H6 v6 O- {( C+ ~& P
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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/ Q. Y, M( J: L8 Z- `$ j# W! F) WA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- K9 g/ F3 x7 x6 n- ^
8 }; _0 W& w8 j. @* d+ s4 H
A=0
. ^0 _9 W5 z, K8 ?0 w4 i( w$ \+ Q( E7 d0 J3 E2 S; \+ W9 {
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢# Z; w8 J0 q5 H- [) `( J; \
+ h7 k- c2 r2 V/ S2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)9 c. O. I* C% f# l& ]
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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! p8 [; M. K5 a% t; z: [' xA=0.1+ O9 c' [) T' F& v7 r# k3 t/ z4 w4 I
$ S0 C" u5 W( f& o3 \
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去2 q! \9 O6 c" m5 a7 L {
$ q( k! Y" o& ]0 U( `
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)6 c, q2 q. `3 D( Q
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
2 Q: z U" R5 [6 v& Z- m% H) Q/ m0 M7 ~. O& ]8 U4 C5 S" \
A= -0.2
: h' C! k3 e# ]/ k: P# m
' |$ Z" M/ T9 [& }3 L# X( `" U0 {结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
- L" s1 {5 L( g8 Q C- A5 A$ @' i) J1 O) w, S1 P
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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