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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
. y. ]# a- F3 G& |* \0 G9 g E; o & j+ E7 G' r- N, v! i! k& q
平手中水,主队有利+ F; y# r6 |; `5 U* j5 u& r$ i' i2 _
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。& C: s1 Z3 K+ r! Z" _. K/ g5 m
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:. W, e1 W6 W+ Z0 I3 c2 R
英超主队
' ^. |, L* s" U, p p- f( W 胜:13场 48%
: F' Z( r$ C. h" _, v) } 平:5场 17%
, x% D. K. `" i! h$ A( C 负:9场 35%
, Z! U. Q4 h3 o( _1 n( G 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。$ q8 V6 D- {8 O2 |; Q
9 @- ?, W7 h, Q) h% _ 一、初盘阶段0 B4 e2 F& _; M# t
具体到水位如下:" U8 ?4 |( H1 c# k# ?
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负2 {* l1 k, ^/ w7 b4 i2 K5 ?, U/ H
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负 r, \9 s( @! k
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
! M2 a, E% _1 ~! B* x
9 x6 c$ {3 q( k+ e# y, Y8 m 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
& L& C1 e" p* l 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。 k( q- o, j# Y7 e
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
) U' ]: J$ ]5 x6 ]: F+ j
* x. }" e# h' f' k4 w& C2 a; {) P 二、临场阶段$ n+ j! @& ?/ ~! h
/ K4 y) q1 {! n& R 具体到变盘和水位如下:
$ @1 L0 E% } S) g 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负+ i4 }8 {2 s7 q7 J @* h
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
, ?& R9 ]$ b% k% \( c4 s: L8 f0 ~ 0 V! c- ?- X+ k' c- Y/ u
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。0 R: r$ l5 b& {8 N8 B, I
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:. f2 ^0 I3 v& J2 W9 K
: e- [. Q$ t, @+ n7 c5 X 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿. D8 N3 Z9 S* C* X
初盘:0.82平手1.04
8 ]; i1 @7 [2 T! K 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85. w+ n7 |, K; ^7 C. ^
4 {; T3 E& u: j8 p) U
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
* z6 ^& e- s; Q) a 初盘:0.76平手1.10
8 a5 P4 ?0 W' u 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.910 W# ~+ f: n8 h4 [2 o* P
+ q9 B7 \- k2 j1 Z 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
$ p( O- a, c' A5 n. N& E, d 初盘:0.82平手1.04( `/ v" }1 `! C/ _0 m5 I7 c
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98& z9 z& C5 ^* f) a. h
) N7 \5 A4 q8 [& v. r7 `% Y 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
- S, i! c( v+ O7 ` 初盘:0.88平手0.98
2 J; u8 L. h) y0 n% f; n3 _ 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
/ ^& K& J- |. A4 y2 W 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。, b. }2 [! @2 |. C
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
- K# n E6 F# l+ A4 _% G7 F 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
: N8 b W! P0 W1 \
0 X- ]$ @' l% Z" w5 k 三、球队表现& q$ i ^3 y% x6 A" P: j
* E: J8 ^4 w0 O* [6 }- c, I6 j 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
5 H( f' m/ f0 F3 ^$ q$ D* c
" Z+ L' k9 S+ }( S$ Y, N 四、投注要点9 ^1 {; l& Z- `9 c
要点1:平手中水、主多不败! }" ^+ v: ^' \& ^1 K8 T
要点2:平手降盘、走两头3 ~/ M5 N9 Z( z# g. k" K
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败0 u) g4 c: m* Z* n2 `8 C
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大8 r9 h. ]$ ]% ?2 X% ~* ]
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任1 K; D8 T h6 O7 Q; K8 H" n' R2 q
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大' Y }6 _4 ?) p
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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