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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]' x, w3 H5 Z$ _% A
# ^. ?, O, v! G5 {. A大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
7 `" ^$ b5 {- O2 v: f/ Q6 b. \有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。5 }! E3 _( O7 g
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
. e h! u( }* }! |) w; o; l
7 z+ x: F' v$ \+ g" ?" O[1]
3 E8 z* W; [; @7 h* K U9 C% I- E英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。3 M* g8 n$ T1 D7 d* N% i" i
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。1 Q) D3 c" {- n. }) u+ k( X
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。* T6 U% z7 [! Y5 n, I# G
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。
3 S q, k9 P' K6 B: Q6 ?结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
& r. M4 u# j9 U8 i) Z- V4 b) f主胜的开法:7 k& C% F' n, B6 K" c7 V
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。3 t0 y6 f( @/ X* w" c7 {
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
! _6 ]. J' m( }2 a- |/ U9 I5 c2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
! K V) U1 g. W7 m主负:
/ p5 q+ ?3 U: }8 U6 L威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。
% v6 r* p# S# M! T去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。3 G) w" Z3 T& Q4 r- y) O
平局:( f8 y$ `* r8 ^% u) ]
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。. |. Y! n. |; @! q$ O; t
+ u5 J- ~/ X8 n: X, q! S
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
# l/ v# E6 q, E& X1 _ {威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。) o0 f4 U0 A% ?+ o2 c
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。6 H: ]% u; n8 S% f3 L: T3 E
思维与上场一样。
2 G6 |. w% x( ^0 b2 `; b% B
4 y2 R Z, R& H% E; ?* F9 n[3]/ W; f; J* l9 i7 T3 t6 o
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
0 ~3 j$ |: l( G/ F/ p威廉:1.28/4.5/8。& O1 Y9 ~8 Y8 p* S% B. d! C! t
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
5 S% n% k5 R2 K' M3 |" y主队近况不佳,客队132可以。# F4 W( p! T) i- w
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
; H5 r C* v6 h: @主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。$ V) `, N' _- p, n0 G
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
. j) x& z7 L3 t7 I3 c2 R5 |- M主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。' I. k* h+ N5 M) q% d
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那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
+ C! W" K9 _9 U0 t$ A. V( G结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
; S( s+ u- J: u* U) u6 B+ \* a1 R同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。7 y9 F2 I! n7 Z3 b0 i# W& g
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
2 l) l4 Q, R: v6 n! t) s4 D+ t9 ]5 y( _6 \( K
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。0 W# u/ G! y& ?' R4 \; o* _
; p+ \+ C; m a. W5 F* q3 E# r' f例如:; }( n0 ?: V4 l5 F8 {
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
2 B9 i9 {) o' M) M. G1 H7 l+ H- P双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。; k% Z8 t* ?4 r" `; ]# Y# ?
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。, E2 V" I4 S" M7 h& i% j; ?
, H; d, O% I. `9 V: L# J9 J! R! q l5 T欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。8 B4 f- `# o' U9 G- [7 H
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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