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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人2 T/ k$ J, D2 K- M6 v
/ r3 R' a* G4 s8 |认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，8 ^# y" v/ x( }. k
! y# p/ H4 u" f1 O而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富- f5 P/ B9 ?* m! H8 T! Z; u8 c' v* `
2 d; O. {$ j' \4 ~的千禧一代。
- N) b7 A( F/ a; L* p7 N从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB, R7 C' \ ?" F* R) C! j8 @) D
. w3 f4 g* \5 ?4 |4 {5 T# {. H的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
. ?( _( q/ K A/ B; r' L" E& ~
( ?# D' l& Z2 h3 {, B6 z 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加4 a9 v8 M- A f# \' F7 ?% p
+ E' c) \) R! T0 C- W2 P X3 v
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
* d7 }( Q/ w5 j% E# o( T8 o$ @8 H4 A. e+ Y7 l7 U' O* u
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成1 T+ P% E+ V# J$ t- G
. o( ^' S" ]' a9 l& ~' i3 M5 E4 [. o- X的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
% d2 x. P8 p/ ~ e: ?% L; V9 w: l
* g C" R0 J0 {9 I报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
z3 ^# O, `" Y# R) b* W$ d" _* S9 ^" K8 ~( ^* A
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
3 h. ^3 E# Z% R0 H0 p4 q
8 K% F9 D8 M1 h, \/ p GETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
: v6 H% V ^6 p) x& y" _6 w6 C& Q
) x; @( u0 N, R0 {8 G2 p据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
4 H: `6 k0 s3 H" l
" ]; [: j7 ~7 H6 _息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
* ?; W# }; F) _# C9 C/ Z* Q, `1 h6 Q2 o9 _% }+ j
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密 U6 r. l1 y! |0 W% A8 U
: S' ]1 I) M4 P& ~6 p世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富+ M$ j2 v$ B e- i+ `2 O
& M6 ?2 v; x8 G0 W
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不) V: J& V( |, t* L# e
4 h5 @3 x, R$ G# ^$ h+ Y
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一$ D0 N6 H6 h1 @. d3 \5 Z" T
0 O% K" r7 l$ ^9 ~0 {! R- r代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成6 X" B. f; Z5 z0 G* }
9 U9 L; ^. @ D; Y4 [! f* {2 v
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
) k" x0 W- s [
4 S8 s W/ H" V4 I2 Q% a* ^系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
% M! z `: p5 v! ?
/ n$ _( z! h$ ?4 M币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致# G) I2 e5 C7 I+ E6 @0 x% z
- ?" V% A$ C4 l# y9 J1 l1 S4 z
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富/ `0 |8 m' @9 @
4 G/ H7 W8 V4 B. A. y5 n3 D/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
5 |: c! B6 W+ B) j8 z* w8 d+ h8 j( c5 Z9 e! }! o& j
: f' v5 i1 i( ?' H$ |" Z. ~4 `% |$ Z |
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