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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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- l3 B9 ]" x/ l T其实原文标题不是这样的
$ X6 `& ]+ |6 o
2 B* a; n, c. K8 c% S这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!3 a3 X1 g4 ~3 I! c! W
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1 f4 `$ Z- f5 T. a( O9 g8 p9 ]
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
; J q% N$ G- n) ^4 ~1 R他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
+ [4 J/ I3 k8 K4 e% i5 P) l% F/ X) L+ |( K
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。, X4 l- m1 I2 {5 X( | G
' t4 M/ L5 D1 G8 B4 d8 k
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
+ ^6 u" J# j- T X( B* U6 X& C- A
: b8 W, [: u8 q& K& s: z7 a" i「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 6 {5 p' c, t$ T
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
8 U8 U1 Y4 p; i6 J4 {4 d" d$ J3 g% o8 l' u! U
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
: g4 u% n( y" O& h1 i9 T" K: f ' i4 W4 V) m+ y. C T; c
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，% D4 k, R+ u! V8 h+ s6 u0 d
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
0 z, O/ ^5 t$ ]/ O0 F长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
5 d% a% |% \' i8 l* A8 V因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
* N L1 |2 @& `2 M# u6 I+ r心想赢定了。# X* v$ P: ^- d7 e3 A4 ]1 Y$ C0 j
) H$ S9 `! k- Z: F没想到开始不到半刻钟，
$ j% V6 B/ p. H. `( P. Z赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
# x. F- v( L e4 v$ J6 ]! Q& [* A% i
/ u' b1 t' f+ Z) O2 e4 H赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
3 g/ T3 H/ d8 o! E4 T+ h2 q, A但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。3 r- D" r8 C, S! F2 W
( F, |* r/ b. m+ P1 I+ d! d赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
) e9 |+ m! ], S他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 # @$ V) h8 ?0 j
上帝回答道： h; ?$ v" \, s+ g
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」0 e. {$ F ^ ?) D- o) z
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」1 T. r6 m+ P2 X" f8 K/ L4 q
「而不是先发生在我身上。」2 d# A# L3 K$ o1 E& A( S+ s7 @
) K6 G3 g# k+ s 赌徒恍然大悟，9 Y# k. X3 Q5 C- m& M3 A6 U: T
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，% K3 X; o4 Q/ O/ m5 V6 T9 P; k7 j
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
' Z4 s% |2 v& _# Q' W- [2 |( U「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」 `/ W' Q' e4 u8 A3 X P
上帝说完便不见踪影。 + t6 ]9 Y8 u* e+ l- A- r* J
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，, e* @2 _* u& b* V/ D
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
$ T: Q) P7 I8 l4 M* h1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
# `( X9 E9 D! A5 \' r对赌徒十分有利。+ \0 _ \8 _1 z4 I
: m; `# z O- x" b# X但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，% r/ i+ [) F+ b% K( h+ n2 D
在还没掷到1000次之前，
* M# \% a# H2 [; I# e! _仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
6 j* f5 |3 |1 W% }
, T2 \ p: K1 Y 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
9 A Q+ ~ \- r! M
' _5 s& g) Q6 H9 P7 H U 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
8 M; `) X0 Q( d+ O4 p
7 n/ ?9 {3 B7 S( Y0 U- e 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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