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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 7 q$ @' c) U1 H0 ^+ c8 x
5 m. {0 g1 O# a
其实原文标题不是这样的9 j4 q7 ~: o% j" v5 D {' V
1 |" ?! b% a( h, f g: V% F这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!7 L: m! S' f# J& Q" G
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
* H) h/ I3 r; h( d他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
" M2 s8 |1 o h
% E# I# g9 g$ I) I: C$ o9 } 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。0 P9 _; m% |. o) E, [' v
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」& R$ o% `0 l3 d. i/ W( J2 \
+ ^% O( L2 q1 \* z6 d. Y. l
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
/ G7 G- ?& f% \ h+ N& `「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」7 e' m/ j0 x( l+ g
$ |' s" ]3 G7 @/ J 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
+ e5 k1 D7 z8 `" n0 {
1 ~9 y' e- U( P' ]- \/ L接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，1 }; ]* N& O- |- M* E& v
因此铜板较容易出现正面。6 h c8 L: B# L
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 - }* a1 r7 p; O8 o7 d
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
1 o# U# I U' Y# H0 f; i$ N心想赢定了。6 }' y' Z- j$ d+ @+ U* v
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，( O9 w; s7 R; s4 f# T
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」! `+ n0 s3 C6 m2 V5 F) F8 A
0 f0 d: A/ E" l2 X j2 v3 B; [
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
) S0 z# r' m8 u, }: W但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
- P. F* |. A! ^' J8 ]$ \6 @( h
. z4 W+ v$ z; e; |. u6 f& J$ @赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?( @4 q1 N3 ^$ B) T' P
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
# G& A% e$ I$ N; N& Z
上帝回答道：
8 t! O4 r8 i+ }; V& W4 B( B9 b: |「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」/ E# @3 @& X. X+ F5 H% N3 i1 V. J
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」. B# F- i$ D0 S' _
「而不是先发生在我身上。」' y/ L6 e4 l3 d" ]
2 E; p3 k9 x( | m
赌徒恍然大悟，
9 z* v, U' {# ^$ f( ]/ w原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，) w9 N( X( B6 K0 M1 S
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
, T G2 r! i; l! U* g9 Q* }1 a「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
2 l5 X& h1 P M" B/ C. t上帝说完便不见踪影。 # }0 R% K j/ f7 d5 D1 F
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
( Y4 S+ C a6 y1 s& a4 \7 Q若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，7 q# d2 L1 v7 O* d5 |! Q
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
2 Z9 Q3 u4 c! u8 m6 }1 ^对赌徒十分有利。1 Q6 l1 K, N4 k% s' b* W3 X
$ f$ T" n; J1 x但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，5 P' y3 ]; K& ~* `8 P
在还没掷到1000次之前，
3 `# j' _, f9 x+ n仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
, C; Y/ M) c+ D- ]; c5 X: T
$ I$ b& H9 p( O& j% `, ]" d* @) a 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。5 G% W O9 R6 z0 x3 @' y0 t0 @
2 w' K+ e; G8 t( z1 x0 H8 [ i 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
: X1 i9 |' }! w- t
; A, X- w! A1 G" w/ D- i# o 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，' ~4 U5 D+ C1 k
; X4 m- J' Z7 n
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 2 t) R0 b( k! i8 h
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