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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?6 q7 m3 k$ z0 j5 Q8 k! g" T
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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# ~5 I a$ C( f0 I2 A其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!- l/ [8 x0 z; d% J$ R
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产? l8 w3 I" V: A( F
' a+ }% A. Y5 i" H3 M' V
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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8 u/ D+ l9 W3 p6 T5 _7 L答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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" ~, Y( r0 x9 P* w e( y- ]5 H现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?1 ^! W6 A! S d- ~
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。8 e- C- s, c! w' ~, g
" o- D, ]$ p7 m% h+ o: q* I3 ?( R! \" U玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!' z* T5 ]/ Y2 y
' k0 v" p% h7 z' T玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。" y8 x4 o! n5 ]1 r1 H
4 i: X6 d7 F/ @3 {这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。4 `. P- J/ d2 G% }
$ h1 k* j" q5 g接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?6 D- H: N- {3 v/ n1 p% [( v
" Z4 O1 T" I$ }玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。1 }# A# d5 B* O
8 v& M: l8 }% W! V: F6 [再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。( o& E& X( _ o, S. _# y, f
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。" o8 o6 E$ r8 G" P6 K, J7 u( r- N
5 a' s2 l7 m1 O( {" ` \0 P5 S: p9 u但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。# X0 K* \: d2 T* Z5 U& I# L
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下注比例 本金结果% w$ I5 o1 l+ T; A4 H% U! Z5 b
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0.1% 1.001902 F& j1 A) {" H3 X0 ^
5 g; S' ^& V6 @5 B( k0.2% 1.003606& u' S4 `' A: B0 c: }
3 u- U" q8 H7 |! n9 N1 {
0.3% 1.005113- _' G: W6 }4 K
2 \# ]" i m9 V4 x( ]- a4 i
0.4% 1.0064210 j* J; f- [7 R* [" y
: ], e6 w& ^9 h& C0.5% 1.007528- D+ p \2 N2 }1 G6 P9 D
# G0 w# r" v6 G: h4 h' [) C' D0.6% 1.008435. G6 f7 {3 C. i& p1 V8 U9 p
5 v5 _# D/ x3 n
0.7% 1.009142 x7 Y d* |3 X% u3 w- X5 l9 i
' F( F; z) [& ^
0.8% 1.009646/ G4 L Q7 ?) L- l0 j" V+ ~5 m
0 n$ A% Z- s c* h8 S3 F h: i! |/ g
0.9% 1.009949
1 z) N% c8 j7 m4 D' j# D3 S
4 h. m! g0 Y' P. L" _1.0% 1.010056 p, Z' B3 K$ x4 W* E
" m, X' M1 C: x; L1.1% 1.0099499 M* F& }/ E- T3 v& ^& Y
" |; ]" b6 J/ f- L0 N) \1.2% 1.009646
6 S# @6 T) \2 O& z0 z+ Q" g' E+ b4 ] {; C* u
1.3% 1.009142
3 o$ R% t* [, i& I5 ^: Z+ U$ L; ~/ H! D" G5 b3 y2 ], P
1.4% 1.008435* M% l! p. T* ~$ P- z* i, Q
8 _, B: [5 V" @- H$ P% Z
1.5% 1.007528: g4 A& E' A) _% m6 A
1 C* k2 [& T* b1 |! p& S. \( t1.6% 1.00642 R* n+ ^0 ~# }/ w
: |' b: ^" _% j* ~
1.7% 1.005112/ R; Y! }. w6 X$ d9 I/ o4 l
9 C( t4 n; M( @+ X3 M: B
1.8% 1.003605
0 }' ~- ^! |9 I! W4 d" `, Z
) i2 J1 Y" x6 [& R1.9% 1.0019
4 w- a+ @) ?: y6 W8 o" W1 v( U/ z( X+ Q! W, `$ e$ h# e0 U& V
2.0% 0.999997/ ~8 O% J) a* L. _ ?7 K# y
6 ~3 q( F% ^( f: H! W1 L
2.1% 0.997899
- U+ n% n$ o. S" c( ~* {0 s0 e
9 K; o0 n l% n% [- u" t/ s2.2% 0.995605, d2 t( }# K5 R9 f
, H Y8 @( j6 a6 u2 L& n8 Q/ E2.3% 0.993118
; L ~ A) s5 ^$ C" f& S/ u8 O& D0 c# t8 `* @" U" w9 J9 Y
2.4% 0.990439
$ B& N6 D# u0 d9 |- m3 b* u- d; O1 t0 j8 U1 i' a; B
2.5% 0.987569
, j( n9 | F; g3 w. T
7 T4 I7 P& c) u3 @2 g. G- o2.6% 0.98451
) r6 N1 M [# F
% L# T+ L! G& h9 E6 X V2 Y4 n3 {2.7% 0.981264' T, a7 ?6 | _8 X2 b; x
: r6 A: E, n) e' k- Y6 _
2.8% 0.977833
+ _/ e# P N4 U- U1 b: w) {/ [4 _- x" t8 @) D8 m: |
2.9% 0.974219
% D- s) q1 F/ Y" J) y' t$ ~1 @ D8 R& k6 W) p7 m
3.0% 0.9704246 Q& [+ b+ w! u. R& I4 _! G( B
. s( M1 o% N. s+ }7 ^, @- \$ o$ l
从上表可以得到一些结论:
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0 @* L' l$ {( r s; S' C1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈3 [* a6 B% _% x J, w
0 [/ D) ~% x' u4 h$ K凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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1 c+ u# C' e' U; E7 p$ A! h4 O然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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1 ?4 h4 B# p8 i1 f- E: p! _以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。. n8 ~5 w/ [9 H
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