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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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! O* i. `& L8 W; i7 P9 |$ J会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!9 O% D5 Y! x! N! l4 \
& J/ U. d# g7 K4 [: v l首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?- R5 X9 G5 Q: r
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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) B/ L6 M$ }$ S0 z( Q4 {+ v答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!1 `; g3 G) @; \8 k1 ^. `: I
2 e! U" y( [8 l例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。- Z' D9 O3 [# Z: J8 D* k# t! d
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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, I$ D1 C+ k3 v0 I我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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0 C8 `$ D/ b( v7 _" a玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!& f& a- t* O# |1 c
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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3 d; f/ \3 X5 Z$ A' O* W0 e这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。8 b& i" q) S: D, L9 H
1 Z w0 ?5 e! o$ v" L% c& f8 u接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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; \6 Z+ E* ^9 c5 ^3 s2 u7 s0 v玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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$ |6 j3 l1 l* W1 _3 a8 ~0 A下注比例 本金结果8 }; u5 A3 Z. ?
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0.1% 1.001902# U; c6 H, K) c% a& U
. c" j8 O$ U7 r7 u7 J y7 _2 M0.2% 1.0036067 Q7 k6 ^0 g; y8 I' e
! j Y/ {" m' Y" x' E" b a0.3% 1.0051139 ~ ?; l4 V% w; v& [' D% Y
, ~' V1 R; _. A! N6 M+ C0.4% 1.006421' d2 T' Q6 M0 X3 J
4 v& R2 R3 ?$ W) G8 ^( V
0.5% 1.007528) [3 o3 j& Z/ Y
' y' ~) O: ^, h. O; N* O0.6% 1.008435
6 U9 m! x1 f! E$ x# I/ p3 K# a6 z8 B$ ~9 E
0.7% 1.009142% x: |) k# r$ k9 g; T$ K2 d
9 d' s, y) Y* \8 H
0.8% 1.009646
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0.9% 1.009949: ~8 M x4 z% E/ R+ a6 |4 C7 _
3 \" B9 k+ ~& l( m- C3 A
1.0% 1.01005
. N+ k' n/ z4 ~. s0 a
5 g6 b$ B) M0 X3 B0 M1.1% 1.0099498 p1 y3 H( G& R- Q! R* u
+ D. l+ h0 X/ f7 W1.2% 1.009646
1 F5 x( ^* ^; p' B" ^; ?
" W, U& h, f& _4 A1.3% 1.009142
B' m9 y3 [+ V+ j# w( M/ @5 G/ R7 x6 p' e3 Y) o
1.4% 1.0084350 c3 n! N' c- t: B3 Y9 b5 K; Q. Y
' W, c; M0 V0 I# A
1.5% 1.007528
2 E2 V) M) Y% E) M5 ? R( G
) W, R" O- C9 h( l+ M3 `1.6% 1.00642! C, {* e1 T8 O0 r t7 b
X2 {* a" p& k7 F# R
1.7% 1.005112. Y6 [9 t/ @) F* }2 x6 w4 [
# g! k4 s+ @# c! o" ~1.8% 1.003605
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1.9% 1.0019- _. G% g/ b8 E- n8 y
6 B, A2 S) b, J1 V; J+ T' r; h2.0% 0.999997- ]; y+ I6 Z, O8 Q$ J, D3 h) S( m
' P6 a9 z. Z" \" P! z2 R
2.1% 0.997899
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2.2% 0.995605' i2 R, p. G' @. ~1 C1 h7 l/ d
- b% u) J5 h: Y% ~ T/ p2.3% 0.993118
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0 }( C4 |. v/ w7 D6 o4 o2.4% 0.990439: g: ~$ ? d+ ^9 c. [% ]* S: g
( F& {/ V, k a% s" ?# @
2.5% 0.987569
9 }* F1 x6 B' A I0 ?) s& J9 A& r8 F- f. `( y1 N) v {
2.6% 0.984516 m7 r9 n3 ], n# l
: z3 L( b j# n8 Q( T- }2.7% 0.981264
( Q5 T3 A2 q. M' k/ [4 B" S9 ^6 b/ |3 L: x4 Q& X3 z7 [& S
2.8% 0.977833
. Y# @ x# i. m/ {
( N" |4 T* w2 h, | j/ i$ y2.9% 0.974219+ p3 _6 @* L8 `# I& _
0 f0 w; Y- k5 K3.0% 0.970424' }9 v1 \0 K% ~5 g7 v }" J. g
1 o# }/ `5 y7 \. v+ {
从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利) j3 M& P1 P$ K2 `0 e6 P2 F
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!" d$ J$ P) H6 [/ x
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈$ ~2 q+ \$ x6 n9 T9 u# A
0 Z+ D9 V! o$ K; B凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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9 o% D# |- e7 R5 T3 K$ O) d以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。; M; ]: n# v7 P3 N. i
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