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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。, l" g S+ Y' ~: R7 j, u
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!% O- m2 J2 f- k0 h9 G0 D. y
4 B: g( R& q' E# n2 e首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!! y0 f s2 X* e, V, h, s
6 [. z/ C6 G: l0 o+ U例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。% U& U0 L* W1 @8 |+ M U9 j5 P
, A, e! D+ p8 I) \9 ~- M! s现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
2 z( d# v3 g& m& E
/ ^3 |. _. A, C2 g% K: q. j" r我们先来看一个0和的游戏。; `, m- @1 `5 C# Z5 t8 ~, d
2 z T' y0 b3 c$ |
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!9 ~( E: z7 ?" i! p
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。! M) U! w8 N. w9 e3 `/ K* @
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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; }8 ^* Q5 I& F' e接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?* d2 g0 C7 H/ w% U
: {2 Q8 X6 {& ^0 `玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。% m) ?3 d& j% [% i
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。 E& M7 `9 x3 z$ y
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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3 d7 A2 o4 S3 v) m5 ~" l) q+ B: s% M m下注比例 本金结果
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) @( z; ^& {) M* l) q" g0.1% 1.001902+ P0 A/ @1 F9 t. ]
2 y3 ~: e4 s. j) K% c1 X# P( _0.2% 1.003606# ~- _3 J6 K9 ]9 G5 h! B, b4 P
9 b c7 v \5 I5 m' D7 `" _; Q9 o$ T
0.3% 1.005113
) P1 h4 h4 K, J; w7 p) A
" W4 k6 _/ x G: O6 F+ [0.4% 1.0064213 M0 E0 |- N7 |% n
" F7 c; G8 |) R4 {
0.5% 1.007528
7 K' x- M, ^: p
& G/ l8 m( Y( t0.6% 1.008435) O' a) r2 B% E+ j; ^8 T
z8 R8 @5 r7 y; W% _# I- U/ H1 @
0.7% 1.009142
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) u9 e' u. x/ o* d# D4 {2 e* K0.8% 1.009646
; Z! J3 V3 C/ X: I5 t
3 S, k% s8 S) x0.9% 1.009949
+ P! n' [5 ~# P6 X! o
0 b1 t2 x7 I' Y5 Q+ S/ ~1.0% 1.01005- i" b2 ~0 j% E9 K/ _
4 E- D, z# L; v# R: O* K; {) O% m0 A1.1% 1.009949
, J+ s0 g1 W" N6 W5 Y% F* _ o. n3 ]2 W- D) R' N o
1.2% 1.009646
& f$ E/ A9 N! i0 B
8 O! G0 k6 j. L \- q9 T1.3% 1.009142; p+ C/ d/ d$ f; n+ S: \: y) a
# L0 @, X, E- [4 S1.4% 1.008435
) G' a8 u$ I* {1 q9 f. d& z+ ^
1.5% 1.0075285 K9 W7 r) F N0 z4 G0 O
" o6 [- X- Z; T$ a X1.6% 1.006427 r# Y% d3 G$ [3 W8 P
& ^, d l# c3 y4 T3 s1.7% 1.005112
7 T- Q( R: q) a( B; C
% |, ^& k# y5 j1.8% 1.003605' Y2 T! ]% a, H/ v1 _" {: v# j
/ j" G% ~8 V9 q9 p. A Q
1.9% 1.0019
5 {" C/ T! t* O% J6 A6 _ v6 s' n3 ~' O9 }4 }
2.0% 0.999997 H h5 E _+ a q* p/ ]8 x
3 `7 [% \5 i4 E* B5 i
2.1% 0.997899
% j, R% I- _( @9 l" G: W( r3 y4 t# X T8 d7 R" w
2.2% 0.995605; y- a5 ]8 W$ B0 U5 y3 }7 ~
& A8 y/ `3 \' z) ]* g% q. Z
2.3% 0.9931184 C: j" U& Q0 F) B% ]9 k3 w0 K9 D/ t
0 S1 @, P `! \9 V) ~ \9 m0 H
2.4% 0.990439: m9 P! v# W# K0 x$ e
2 z% W0 V' b6 R% F, O2.5% 0.987569* q# [( U5 {' g# Q2 y4 L& t
3 C$ u- D' A" z6 h5 {5 [
2.6% 0.98451
0 h O; ?# C8 D1 _! p# ^$ V9 B F7 ~# C$ J/ ^
2.7% 0.981264
b* ^! Q4 I n/ v- U- W
' C. L9 x* T ]& X/ @2.8% 0.977833
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2.9% 0.9742195 y5 G) d& k8 G' ~; |# B
7 U. n: Q) `7 M7 ?' s
3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论: F& I+ G' k6 v' t
+ P; R0 d! ]9 I1 E6 j1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!/ n4 a$ A1 l- z' z/ n3 O9 C8 O
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈) ^! }: C' U: n7 K
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%.... p: Y5 a- L9 ?. g
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。" ~# ^& r" D& M: L. S9 t4 C
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。 x9 q! U2 k+ U
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