×
Array
(
[fid] => 6903
[description] => 汇聚千万菠菜人经过无数次摸爬滚打总结出的原创经验打法,更是菠菜高手纯粹交流殿堂。
[password] =>
[icon] => 27/common_6903_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[716] => 版块公告
[1510] => 打法练习
[1511] => 打法交流
[1659] => 入驻合作
[1745] => 提现流水
)
[icons] => Array
(
[716] =>
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[716] => 1
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 31 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 理论实战大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 4
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 15136
[posts] => 518270
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 28
[rank] => 5
[oldrank] => 5
[lastpost] => 2651265 【E世博】5月20日投注流水64267元(单日流水) 1716303371 如梦的生活
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 0
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 1
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 8
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 4
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1052 小时
本月在线: 4 小时
|
|
有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
1 a+ y0 _4 {& P
8 S. i( r; q- l会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。3 J$ N$ C7 d9 z: _
& b6 e9 g5 Q0 l6 D; h8 n H其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
' q4 Q" k. [' Q0 q, u1 I# u3 M& C% U$ {4 I
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
' g2 I* m0 T/ k* ]8 F: W
) k" W* r# p7 Z2 Q4 k. P2 E请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
" g# ~7 O, C8 u5 V" A+ K
& G+ u# h% D1 \' q1 q( \答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!& @, D& B1 x$ Z1 n [( v
; i3 j" |2 A; d k9 _
例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
9 U! p+ \- @1 D$ D7 C V$ Y& z6 e D/ `; b. k
现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?. y z6 O! P4 R. }& M* [, [
; h% _8 p1 z' n" y% C- r" ], @& r' A
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。/ i u9 @5 X% u8 ?
6 c1 x2 j7 o& ?% O! Q玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!* m1 c" _- m' i; e7 o
) b$ `6 m- `6 I1 k, ]5 W
玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
3 A( x9 [2 a" V. W3 f
2 q7 N5 ?* e! \' t这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。# s! ^6 I5 X+ o$ G1 i/ r
" e# K8 S3 j K! c) ~% _* O1 u
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?1 `3 b. x( B! T) Q/ M
G- Q, s: A3 e* g
玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。% n9 K% S+ Y5 n9 H9 F5 w' o5 B$ l8 ]7 N
6 a3 b" {$ ~' [' |8 c再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。" ^5 i. F- }: l" M3 ~! m* Q+ t. c
% n- \) {/ r" g- z- _如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
; @" D: Z1 V' g0 ]4 s& V- u8 s, b) [
但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。4 f; j+ X, b0 y
9 q( n ]- ]8 ~' j' E, x2 u
下注比例 本金结果# ~0 ^8 R" \2 X! B0 Y; R
0 a, d; y; Y* e5 U
0.1% 1.001902
0 `! ?2 L" z, r+ Y2 _' E9 b, C; @7 F
0.2% 1.003606
1 }+ e1 d9 G4 s* k1 M! @, `1 S: U1 T9 j4 v3 K+ [ D& ~7 u
0.3% 1.005113
( c% s( {) Z) \
: O, R7 p4 _0 z* x: X2 p/ F0.4% 1.006421
/ q8 {' z5 f0 k/ W: |. M: _! w" E! b. I
0.5% 1.007528
5 w/ }+ Z! b8 y9 i+ [" d+ L! W) q4 q
0.6% 1.008435
* F8 F% x3 u. f/ k. O7 L7 r% U& }6 i( l; F# c1 l
0.7% 1.0091429 i4 `- N8 V+ T5 k& @
' i, A5 {+ N) R6 H+ g+ m3 s1 A4 c0.8% 1.009646
5 x; u1 R$ Y z* \& T& i/ R$ H
! A0 j+ L7 k% `$ U0.9% 1.009949
! R; [. D1 D3 b h, q# L9 B
( h9 h; O8 K2 A: L* O1.0% 1.01005( k7 ~1 J4 [& y' r; ^' L: M) o
z! M- C) M0 c r2 L4 F' X) ^1.1% 1.009949" h. m+ B, w, s0 S( R3 }1 b4 }
+ u$ x: }) t6 a7 `; I
1.2% 1.009646# |+ \. z# W; M/ H" E6 _3 ~
! e% H% W7 @+ x. p# y7 b" J1.3% 1.009142& L, u: w2 ]* k/ V
/ ]# o8 E) j6 [/ V4 ~1.4% 1.008435
- O# } P9 r4 M7 K6 z" ^# {
; a* `0 Y* j/ ]8 x: H1.5% 1.007528* z2 U# n$ G) @- p) ?1 a
6 l1 c `( u- t* Z1.6% 1.00642
# O1 o+ E; U2 X1 p7 s" P# h
, N$ S3 R) c% c8 @3 p1.7% 1.005112
6 ?% b: U z% Z: `1 O
$ h, E8 ^0 B* T1.8% 1.003605 a9 k6 k. E& N* D3 n) `; G
8 E. f4 W4 e c. n/ v* B% W1.9% 1.0019
; z# y7 e- y! ]$ G
1 @. k1 k5 y( B7 {2 [+ r. O2.0% 0.999997) J6 }6 S7 a2 J
% k, q: V+ p( ?& I
2.1% 0.997899
& ]* B" o' `5 q+ N' f7 m
. U5 o4 o! a/ F( V! h% C# H2.2% 0.9956051 w, g# J2 l: j7 V1 K
& u; U7 N+ A$ e; O4 |
2.3% 0.993118
4 r; W# `3 } b0 E" U) V2 X( c% r F1 ^6 c. L
2.4% 0.990439
7 f9 C/ w+ j7 I7 [. x, S6 _. {4 \* @8 |4 X3 c4 R! s" C
2.5% 0.9875699 X( F+ v" \( J3 R9 ^0 L
5 A. f; L" z1 L2.6% 0.984513 L8 v2 u" @6 v
* [4 N1 Z$ i2 Z
2.7% 0.981264
. q# g1 O* a, R
9 Y2 M8 m$ X/ x1 x2 _8 ^$ f! J$ t" \2.8% 0.977833/ ]& N/ m3 W. C! P J
% ?0 W. c: w' q& k( P7 \
2.9% 0.974219
h O, S* s* e: ^8 k6 R2 `; @1 w4 O( ^, S
3.0% 0.970424
& z$ N4 I7 z- J* J
! z/ \4 V6 C% R; Q, T' t3 \' a1 S5 K8 Q从上表可以得到一些结论:
4 ^8 E' k: J% t8 F# I# J8 [0 {5 m
" \* B& V; d/ @0 \ t1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
. U3 X4 H- ?* n& c3 J; L6 t5 G* Q3 B" E5 P5 v
2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!/ }. H1 p* v; H
5 z+ `0 l6 N* f: M4 o& Q% S7 ?( u& Q$ a
3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈) g* w4 ^ }, c1 J* J1 `3 ?" K
. d9 a( _; I5 [5 K
凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
4 T6 Q/ h5 R/ \+ N6 H! t- \
- g( {3 y0 t* S: k然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
- M9 Z: g Z! X1 s7 J {* S0 C! m8 o, E+ P: ?( G1 a
以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
& g+ A! C- r& j+ B O6 W- j/ k& Y+ d! Q1 t! z5 S( K
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11548 小时
本月在线: 77 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17432 小时
本月在线: 57 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3411 小时
本月在线: 29 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16975 小时
本月在线: 142 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2141 小时
本月在线: 32 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8214 小时
本月在线: 37 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12109 小时
本月在线: 33 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9401 小时
本月在线: 51 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4182 小时
本月在线: 45 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|