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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。. p# r4 I0 C( S" g% T1 k

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率# f9 H+ H9 `% [* }

  C2 s( H' `# j! ~, |9 O- d$ R以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:( Y  ~7 b$ L5 E! g5 a1 C+ T
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 6 [! c' H' G3 g/ l8 f8 A$ T
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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& Z+ ]7 I4 L, _( g& Y答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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" K5 ~& q5 M! `1 ~* r3 x) `$ Q以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?- e/ K4 \0 _& d! B, d( W% F! R

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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 g# B9 P" l* l4 k
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增值
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1 I  P: O- w8 A$ s, [8 B, m, [许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。! A* l% K* E7 X3 d5 n1 e' t$ p) _* G
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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1 A$ y  h% V3 D4 ?: Ba) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 3 Z2 R4 e0 J8 b6 ]; X8 K

3 o7 ~8 v, W$ _* c% h- K& C正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么5 j( P; ]  c9 v; Y. w" ]
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
2 G. g  `8 V) x& F5 {60%的机会你会一无所有5 G9 W( k7 a+ J$ ^( p* u5 r
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
' p+ J4 m1 B3 R0 {" F: ]由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。* Y) V7 V- ^, ^, y3 i6 k
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基于增值的投注2 R: u! r1 x& m
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。/ }5 F# |  X! D: W, V; w
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)7 Y3 J  I, s" Q/ Z& U- C* x) B  D
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A=博彩资金
6 }2 H6 o; V8 c: cP=获胜机会
+ f9 o9 h" L4 C$ f/ @  G. U# PO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)% ^+ W4 i+ S. ?; ?  i

) B- j2 h- r3 [8 h; `0 u/ T首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。0 d" g% }7 Q& e; p# {7 Y

0 {) t# j/ y; i; y# E' J好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。  ~5 u( h2 Y+ t2 d

  S3 Q' t0 \. j* b1 I( l+ V9 Z3 [0 F1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)0 D3 Z$ `% b8 |: M. P, k1 r/ Q
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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7 R" _8 g3 j( H" pA=0
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- J3 c5 K5 G- C+ h' _5 v2 m结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢" k% `* N) m) c

9 c, W. t$ J& \8 U2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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+ M/ ~8 l1 g2 h5 ]' r0 eA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)6 m0 E  [; H: `5 S3 }
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A=0.1
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. B) i5 c" }( S( F! B6 \* x结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去5 W- m, {9 O8 l1 v
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)' M/ [7 v" l1 r9 _  V6 f
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)4 C' ~5 G/ f& K) Q+ }& @4 O

6 b. ]: l% x; c2 [! t$ NA= -0.2 ' K: r" T. [4 h# f. ]9 x
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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