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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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其实原文标题不是这样的4 T# H4 J8 K* ~7 u8 Y7 H. q- K
: u6 d l) B3 K. x9 V这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!3 @* \7 O: ^+ T6 Y+ G7 n: T' `+ i
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% {4 {7 N& i4 }
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
' e/ j- x! \& [5 G他希望能和上帝来场赌局。9 e$ A5 O" Q6 J5 C1 R
& F) X9 ^5 Y; ]) O
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
+ ]9 t7 z9 w7 X# A4 M
3 @( I. z, {8 r H) g& f 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」! K* N( z6 f y: R! W- _& c6 l
+ m* }" W' o1 U9 N6 k! j1 F- S
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 3 V4 x& y# e! y- Y
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」' P; ]9 J2 F5 G. w# W3 E
6 j4 [; X/ j/ b d 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。% _; {2 z; r/ X+ v( d, \0 ^9 w
0 i1 ^4 P6 o; Z4 f0 F
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，8 ~! B; @: r) a- Z2 h
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
; n8 g9 ?$ w1 C4 J长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
: Y! _$ l4 S2 l: R" E* G因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
- a$ `% v/ f$ ]$ |; L- S心想赢定了。
" @* j; `" j, ~9 f2 P0 ]# K8 [ 9 \5 ?2 b1 b! U% }, s
没想到开始不到半刻钟，) j! W& T S( `- Q, c, b. d
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」! l7 V( {& o1 k" ?4 d
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，4 n3 F* t8 Z$ O! j' F
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。- k( f+ q1 B) ], V5 ^
/ G3 A0 L. _( A- z" K' K0 A赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
" Q# ~+ L% B. k4 `/ A' R0 O3 s" K& X他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
" v. G3 A9 C' i( O# N6 z
上帝回答道：* A* q1 O& A3 _8 o+ j. X
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
6 @: i0 o3 M9 u. a4 h「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」2 S/ Y" a9 j7 Z# U" O) p+ B2 p' u2 @8 f3 _
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
3 V8 ]4 [* X; [6 J: x [+ n
) P! h/ ?3 e, E8 q+ u 赌徒恍然大悟，
5 T6 Y4 {! h& d* M8 x原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
. x! Z9 F+ U8 N7 }0 o, A: S竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
( E! a5 G3 X4 w# l0 Y% ~6 y0 ~「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」. |- v$ Q5 w$ e/ r& o$ P2 ^7 Z
上帝说完便不见踪影。 3 @+ L* _, H7 [5 [8 o" L0 l# W
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，) W+ c; q! l" F H, T; ^/ S/ C
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，+ }2 d9 t" l# N; F
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
9 Z2 n9 E/ q& P" N; e对赌徒十分有利。6 _* F$ N t+ c$ u+ ?$ p4 q
( I) P ^* i/ G. X% X# l0 r但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，( D) L+ I2 K+ G6 Q6 j; E
在还没掷到1000次之前，
( k1 P9 N* B P# ~7 `, J9 U! y仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
' a, k |; P5 r, f2 e5 R- |# d) M
. y# r$ v( ]9 p 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。8 E& R6 C9 B/ T" T' o( |% s Y
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
* b: m3 q% q, |- c! a. f+ p$ H- `; S
" ~+ M2 G, O3 o2 C, r" Q 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，8 Y8 g* t( q( c9 q, S- A4 o
6 Y8 ^9 {7 ^. p# L' X 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ : v- T9 _+ e' A' k# M
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