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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意！—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%（转） 1752889314 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗？（转）
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称，美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
7 k8 k, |4 u; h1 `, w" I: }3 N加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。. M- Q o! }( N
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻，加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。
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+ ?$ n( V2 X' L' E6 @根据 估计，预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。9 P7 R3 a1 e: W: R
( }1 ?2 q$ D& x1 Z! a& o2 w- m6 W但是，对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施，债务可能会失控。+ i; H+ f! s' c/ q/ ?
% t, G6 C, p. s2 {1 P他警告说，未来10年内，普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。0 |! k$ k- Z7 I
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可能的后果是什么？增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值，并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。7 y* J% h6 s D
$ w/ U- C4 \" L' `! Y他表示，' A! _* o, f. w) ~
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“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好，而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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; N2 H* e! a8 e A; L. k s! Q' aBTC 的完美风暴？
9 x: `2 c' O* u- C加密货币领袖声称，这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。
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' W) w; ~, a( s2 {% T! ^作为一种固定供应的数字资产，与美元等传统货币相比，它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。1 M2 V# B1 D. Y7 w; d2 A% T( H& D
5 M. U+ b0 R& w. u" d# q7 z这些货币供应量无限，由各国央行随意印制。简而言之，BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。
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" B9 U3 \9 g) ]; A5 nBitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。
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7 T O, a. j* ~# \% e, `( c. V4 vReal Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点，添加在这种贬值情况下，只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。
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“在长期牛市中，贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异：科技和加密货币。”
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尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比，他更倾向于黄金。4 u3 {5 y/ X5 |2 y, }
1 L' n- n2 O+ p+ l$ Y他表示，追踪黄金价格走势更容易，尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难，因此得出结论，比特币仍然是一种投机行为。+ ]$ {) p& \. t
/ P3 C6 ^. w! G) m然而，对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说，BTC 是数字黄金。事实上，他警告今年 4 月，如果财政债务得不到管理，人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。# _+ j. c) V7 C0 ~0 g. B# ]8 u$ [
* m, T1 R1 X p即便如此，财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。' }, T+ b- j. Q4 f g
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“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度，这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”7 \9 U2 V2 A; x* B; \. K+ Y) A" A
5 c' r" n) p8 \- o1 q; r& ?与此同时，Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。8 t6 v9 v9 s. n1 G, X4 L
0 R+ D5 ~9 [0 ?结果，美国财政部可能会补充（从市场借钱）其主要现金账户或TGA（国库普通账户），并挤压流动性，拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。& A0 i, \. e$ K, g
3 I4 V, C- y+ @- ?! z! Z“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性，对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”
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