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[虚拟币交流]
比特币关键指标再次闪烁——BTC 会反弹至新高吗？（转）
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随着比特币徘徊在历史高点附近，积极的购买行为再次出现，但鲸鱼的行为却呈现出分歧。* E9 l5 Z% h, @+ ]$ H s, j
RSI 信号超买水平，而 MACD 动量减弱——BTC 需要突破 105,000 美元，否则有回调风险。8 ?. V- r; v2 q# T+ Z' k' }
比特币的[BTC]随着积极的买家涌入市场，市场势头再次增强。
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; D' b& v7 |1 M L: p' O接受者买入/卖出比率已飙升至 1.02，这是自几次历史性突破以来从未见过的水平，表明市场参与者的信心日益增强。& ^1 W* e6 x! S* N1 x+ F
- H( @$ M: e, l o" L1 k链上数据显示，大型钱包正在加大增持力度，为许多人猜测的可能创下历史新高的最后冲刺做好准备。 T; \8 q( k- Z( h# {
3 m$ `; B2 }3 _: N3 C/ E5 K随着市场情绪升温，BTC 价格徘徊在之前的峰值下方，下一轮上涨行情是否即将开始？2 ~, ?; O% \6 M" u8 j, `' T* Y
6 _4 _1 Q+ k% V市场信心[激增]？
8 u- F. G0 c' Z* u2 V( A根据最近的CryptoQuant 报告，Taker 买入/卖出比率已果断突破 1.00 大关，达到 1.02——这一水平在历史上与比特币价格走势的突破时刻相关。
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7 X/ w& e* c0 Y+ D2022 年末，在 15,000 美元至 20,000 美元的积累区附近以及 2023 年 10 月突破 30,000 美元之前也出现了类似的峰值。
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' c( C: L( y a3 H8 X! M$ U( ^- m: g随着 BTC 目前徘徊在历史高点附近，积极购买的回归表明人们的信心日益增强——但这也提高了风险，因为这个门槛此前曾先于上涨和急剧逆转。
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* Y: q# M& l5 U- ^1 ~1 h超级持有者已暂停
3 s. Z4 f: G+ J- R( b尽管总体积累趋势依然看涨，但仔细观察就会发现行为发生了微妙的转变。
) {& n. u4 t9 G6 x( D2 ~( ?
7 w8 L, ^- C5 E% K# S( U7 |2 Z1 A9 z根据 Glassnode，持有超过 10,000 BTC 的超大鲸鱼已经冷却了他们的购买活动，回到了 0.5 左右的中性积累分数。( [; L0 X) i) [3 z6 i: }2 R
. Y$ U' N3 q x8 v2 b# C; S相比之下，中等规模的群体（持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）仍然是活跃的买家，得分接近 0.9。
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即使是规模较小的机构投资者也表现出持续的强劲势头。然而，散户投资者仍在继续分散资金。
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( |2 H0 b4 V# Z1 R尽管看涨势头持续，但推动涨势的主要是中等规模的投资者，而非资金雄厚的投资者。 q* v- k" x0 s- V1 t+ s: d
$ ~# u; S8 y0 _4 D比特币显示出疲软迹象
3 ^4 D6 H" F2 j- [RSI 为 70.68，确认了超买状况，这通常是局部顶部或小幅回调的前兆。
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$ o' i4 q/ |9 e. u ^4 U& v此外，MACD指标仍保持看涨，MACD线位于信号线上方。然而，动能正在趋于平缓，反映出购买压力正在降温。5 w- S* s" C, v' r' d2 @1 P7 b
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尽管早些时候出现飙升，但价格仍然维持区间波动，暗示可能出现疲软。! ^6 u& z' }% u: J4 W1 t
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如果 BTC 未能令人信服地突破 105,000 美元，那么在任何持续突破尝试之前，短期回调至 100,000 美元或更低的支撑区域仍然有效。
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