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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
. y1 a$ H3 r1 o" J, @. c  z2 ]) p  m2 r3 m( {5 z) u9 t

9 e$ j2 r. S1 D' X' X5 b- e7 c% a只跟踪一个联赛
1 a! ~) y& c! @4 c& {( v: k/ E! I# Z8 a( u7 }

& S9 \5 ?+ D! ^5 Y: {全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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6 q! C$ p9 j: p! F8 ]% H三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。+ F' d7 f8 Y" L: R3 T7 ^. _' p

& j' u& Y0 Z9 a6 W: i" @! W& a. V方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）2 F0 ]4 Z( \( A8 a
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
% f" y& u* p. r5 V# [
/ [) Y9 t" {6 y2 P' e8 w就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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  q$ o6 m7 X0 U- H% y当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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* r+ u7 F; o) ^6 Y# l# q7 i4 ?亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，; e( Q. @5 c) A6 G

2 }$ I9 C+ z# J# O3 [+ e9 |而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，3 G8 ?/ F- h8 ]  C

  T4 _6 Y; v6 R9 r  ?! E* _但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。8 c5 S* E  z  d2 F! ?% b

7 A( v( b' k" ~4 A2 j! F, G3 S" v! N. I' m8 X0 q+ N9 r" Y

# b' j# O% C& o* e6 V" s理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
. F3 U5 }7 h# Z8 C1 [$ M2 c6 O3 a' y5 Y2 E5 w) ~! {0 X% H! p
排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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8 W3 G% d4 D' X5 l$ r但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，  `+ G  e! {  w& _, D/ J7 ~
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这比买国债存银行合算。% `; |4 K" l" Q0 l' h( i6 U
) l5 f, s: r! [# t, \/ z
在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
5 o  \( r2 [  \7 ^: Q$ X
6 v3 Q' O% A* t/ t1 L3 c5 D2 j几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。2 Y4 p9 B) V. w, [7 ]- p: v
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。+ i  `' t& |. M6 z# r5 K/ O& x
# O$ G% `7 k) q  j
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
9 {( M3 S# u% [3 T; W) \1 `. @3 \  Q! w: v' J) m" d
就是回避了大的亏损，+ k" g9 q0 N0 |/ S1 G7 N3 J# x0 q

' N3 c+ X# u6 Q- t% D大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
0 p, M: X* j' J
1 z9 U8 U& m1 l) f回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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