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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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( _ V9 ~' r) C8 i2 `但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。' l6 z, w" ?/ e$ o# _; ^8 a
9 \- H& ~0 k9 L* @- t5 g- j: [Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？$ C$ ?& C( C c" y1 M/ @" ?2 ^1 l
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市: s- a; b" a+ J) q
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。( u. r4 |+ f' h# m$ }" C
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来源：Alphractal
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, J9 M' t$ Z0 r# [0 X Y* @15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
. b( [3 G* y9 {. m$ n# ^BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。: I, ^) d( g! O! \1 X/ s, U# r5 u
- i- L+ Y9 O2 F来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。0 _3 \6 }3 V8 L) X4 g* ?& y4 Q; X, O
; v6 d4 q% u i: W正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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6 N r% M/ k$ C2 B" _ O空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
1 S7 H/ l4 P7 `5 {) @3 e2 P/ q经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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4 L9 N" C) D4 z来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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4 Y4 D7 r0 I8 d- ]: |4 T* l然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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. U. I/ w! ^0 ^% X/ w' v突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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