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[lastpost] => 2766984 Michael Saylor 称比特币为“数字资本”，MSTR 股价上涨（转） 1758240576 sunnyclare001
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当地时间 9 月 17 日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）“加速批准”了加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）的通用上市标准（Generic Listing Standards），为相关产品进入公开发行和交易铺平了快车道。* @& Z* @5 i' g, F
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" m* K% O2 C. O% Z3 ?7 L7 e$ v# p; U一、通用上市标准：从“逐案审批”到“一键上市”
( B1 ~4 q. g4 F# d( T9 v+ J此前，加密 ETP 的上市是一个漫长、昂贵且高风险的过程。发行方需要为每一个新资产提交特殊申请，证明其市场具有足够的流动性且不会被操纵，SEC 的审核期长达 240 天甚至 270 天。. \6 Y. T4 z/ C+ ~7 X/ Y( C
( C% ~/ p' ~! @9 Y1 |; ]7 G" L- |& A通用上市标准的影响是革命性的：
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% {6 F8 X s9 D$ f) a2 ~! v( x流程简化与加速： ETP 只要符合 SEC 明确规定的某些要求，其批准就将几乎得到保证，且流程时间大幅缩短至 75 天或更短。并允许符合标准的加密 ETP（交易所交易产品）无需 19 b-4 表格即可上市交易。+ c8 _% ]# k+ G& y( }
交易所选项预： 行业内的大多数提议认为，通用上市标准应要求底层资产必须在受监管的美国期货交易所拥有期货合约进行交易。符合条件的交易所包括 CME、Cboe，甚至可能包括 CoinbaseDerivatives Exchange 和 Bitnomial 等。% \. z @& ^2 I3 w$ Z( {: Q6 \
首批获益者： SEC 已批准交易所上市标准，并迅速批准了 GrayscaleDigital Large Cap Fund（主要持仓为 BTC、ETH 等）的交易。
5 r+ r8 d- P, s3 E W0 Z二、产品爆炸性增长：历史的重演# F8 {) | B3 B: E5 k z
Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 预测，通用上市标准将引发加密 ETP 数量的爆炸式增长，历史经验支持这一观点：
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- B- l5 R% P" O' i9 _传统 ETF 的先例： 在 2019 年底 SEC 通过 “ETF 规则” 为股票和债券 ETP 创建通用标准后，新的 ETF 推出速度立即翻了三倍多，从平均每年 117 个飙升至每年 370 个。
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4 c6 X% U# ~/ i `" z; j: I8 ]( x* h4 Q加密市场预期： 预计加密 ETP 领域也将出现同样的扩张。符合期货合约条件的山寨币，如 Solana、XRP、Chainlink、Cardano、Avalanche、Polkadot 等，都将迎来 ETP，并吸引大量传统资产管理公司进入该领域。% ~+ ^5 c! D' w0 W- v& T) h+ b) s. K
三、宏观双重利好：降息与 ETP 浪潮的叠加
& ^# M$ S# O' l3 F# `ETP 的监管突破正值美国宏观政策发生转变之时：
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Fed 转向： 美联储在同一天宣布降息，鲍威尔称之为“风险管理式降息”，明确表示劳动力市场“不需要再放软了”。这标志着 Fed 政策重心从控通胀转向保就业，预计将开启流动性充裕的降息周期。1 K% _) j4 h8 Y9 V
流动性与渠道： 降息周期将释放更多资本流向风险资产；而 ETP 通用标准则提供了接入这部分资本的最便捷渠道。
/ L1 i4 M& B8 T) q/ ]四、对加密资产价格的影响, k) S, W/ S0 e' C
Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 在其报告中表示，ETP 的存在本身不能保证资金流入，但它为资产的“爆发”做好了准备。
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9 e: Q7 o; r2 v( J! q6 t) Z* ~解锁传统资本： 全世界的绝大多数资金由传统投资者控制。有了 ETP，这些投资者无需处理复杂的钱包和私钥，通过券商账户即可轻松配置加密资产。, k& n% X% A" R/ E( B$ m4 l
降低“神秘感”： ETP 将加密货币从“极客专属的陌生代币”转化为可信的股票代码。这降低了普通投资者的门槛和恐惧感，更容易将 Chainlink 与 Mastercard 合作、稳定币等应用联系起来。" r2 ]6 d7 @% y/ H, ^
资金蓄水池： ETP 相当于为资产建立了巨大的资金蓄水池。一旦资产的基本面（例如 Solana 活跃度、Ethereum 生态发展）开始好转，资金将能以极快的速度、极大规模涌入，引发快速的价格上涨。0 N: @/ k. j' s6 z- t
总之，随着 SEC 监管壁垒的消除和美联储降息周期的开启，这场“ETP 大爆炸”将彻底释放被压抑的加密资本和创新，加速加密货币的主流化进程。$ M: m+ O4 m; Q' G ~9 I
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