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美财长的“如意算盘”要落空了？高盛预计一场稳定币的“淘金热”即将开启，但瑞银专家以及央行的央行却泼冷水……AI播客：换个方式听新闻! ^) c2 v( t8 W. c8 z6 N7 q# H- ]
下载mp3
) }5 e- l6 W+ Z+ P) M音频由扣子空间生成
" ?9 q& x; {! o% s' e4 Y美国财政部长贝森特相信，
" ]1 a) [' y4 S& ^稳定币将提振美国国债市场，而ZF将出售更多短期债务以满足这一需求。
; k* F9 M4 H( {3 v: w8 o V ]2 o据报道称，贝森特已向华尔街发出信号，他预计稳定币——一种由国债等高质量证券支持的数字代币——将成为美国ZF债券的一个重要需求来源。
0 r6 S7 J: p& g0 k. }# ?/ [其实这早已有预示，贝森特早在7月份的一份新闻声明中就已表示，他预计来自加密货币的需求将支撑债券价格。
% _1 Q d& a7 n5 H5 c他当时说，“9 u0 B$ T' e% }# C9 U: }. O
这项突破性技术将支撑美元作为全球储备货币的地位
0 d0 J9 ] o( c9 x: K5 h. t，为全球数十亿人扩大进入美元经济的渠道，: s) _: Y4 s- Y5 c( {
并将导致对作为稳定币支持的美国国债的需求激增
% @ F+ M8 J Q( m。《天才法案》（The GENIUS Act）为快速增长的稳定币市场提供了所需的监管清晰度，使其能够成长为一个价值数万亿美元的产业。”/ |6 H) [8 ]$ e1 F. S. V
白宫当时表示，上个月宣布的《天才法案》“统一了州和联邦的稳定币框架，确保了全国范围内公平一致的监管”。4 v; ?2 c6 t/ q. H+ u
根据高盛银行的Will Nance等人发布的一份研究报告，) Y) k" H( T: {# K8 d- Q' _ J+ c5 v
高盛认为，当前市场正处于一场稳定币“淘金热”的开端
/ T9 W9 N u; _ a。
% ^5 F8 D. X' A7 ?他们写道：“稳定币是一个价值2710亿美元的全球市场，我们相信USDC（由Circle发行的稳定币）将受益于其在合作伙伴币安平台内外的市场份额增长，因为正在进行的稳定币立法使该生态系统合法化，并且加密生态系统也在扩张，这也可能受到立法的催化。根据目前的趋势和已宣布的举措，我们+ |. ?" j3 S2 a* `# i
预计USDC在2024-27年间将增长770亿美元，复合年均增长率（CAGR）达40%。3 ~$ j8 t, I* s6 C5 h j
”
0 y! Q! y2 A, W* R高盛表示，6 A0 W% r& n+ A! Y: ^+ b2 {
稳定币的潜在市场总额高达数万亿美元9 S1 p) E/ a. z7 I2 W6 S9 o
。“Visa公司估算，支付领域的潜在市场规模为年支付量约240万亿美元，其中消费者支付约占年支出的40万亿美元。B2B（企业对企业）支付约占600亿美元，而P2P（个人对个人）支付和付款则构成了其余部分。”" ]6 X% \+ S: q: l) j
该行总结道，“因此，从长远来看，支付领域是稳定币扩张的最明显来源。这个机会迄今为止基本上未被开发，大部分稳定币活动是由加密货币交易活动和美国以外对美元敞口的需求所驱动的。”( C1 c% G# G3 R, A1 T9 F( @
因为在美国，稳定币必须由美元或美国债券以1比1的比例支持，所以每发行一枚稳定币，都会增加对其背后作为支持的债券的需求。一些人认为这将改变债券市场，特别是对于利率较低的短期债券。
: g+ c3 p7 ]4 C9 f- B% T/ u. H5 u旨在促进各国央行合作的国际组织国际清算银行的一份研究报告表示，情况确实会如此。“
0 x/ m4 W/ T: P) V向稳定币注入一个2倍标准差的资金流，会在10天内将3个月期美债收益率降低2-2.5个基点4 O6 k' L8 p) K0 ]
，”BIS的论文估计。但该/ U$ t+ ?9 _' W( n6 D
效应是“不对称的”。$ _9 l8 A; j$ D+ j& {
论文称，“
% {0 H% m- X% h- |稳定币的资金流出对收益率的推高作用，是资金流入对其降低作用的两到三倍。
4 C: a9 p+ y, K# z”0 g5 M8 Y8 e- w! u) V
瑞银集团的Paul Donovan对高盛说的这种情况更为怀疑：“据报道，美国财政部长贝森特对稳定币可能增加对短期美国国债的需求感到兴奋，希望以此为美国不可持续的财政状况提供资金。然而，
3 f( b. L1 W: }' ~3 ?5 O/ w稳定币更多的是在重新分配货币供应。某人卖掉国库券去购买稳定币，而稳定币又将这笔钱投资于国库券，这并没有改变对美国债务工具的需求。
3 F8 D3 R6 l3 {2 |2 ?& D% X5 t”& ?- {* P6 d" G
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