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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘5 j; y' Z: L# d8 |$ r
) F3 s. L' T8 R' T% I4 o, q 平手中水,主队有利
" D d! E7 D, X0 I# [: {; z 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。$ W3 O; K2 X/ A' x
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
8 U8 `; C8 C1 N" J& s+ O 英超主队
4 _2 |5 g0 s) o. o' [4 m; u8 j 胜:13场 48%0 V7 Y0 n) q8 H/ _3 b: g n
平:5场 17%
% w; @. p n6 M( ]( i$ X; `2 O- f& I 负:9场 35%/ o m$ f" u8 ^( |
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。9 @% K( p! R4 B% Y
) f5 J V$ n4 G# ~) ^
一、初盘阶段
- u4 q/ `$ L, @! M# }- b2 K% ? 具体到水位如下:
* j% T8 v$ V' }* z2 N# G 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负+ k) W8 r) ~5 z# p9 S1 ?
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负; L* r& \1 j! ^9 e0 B
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负# a2 L$ S8 I6 `, c
0 k' K+ v: c) d5 `/ ~% t+ \" F: I 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
8 L) D _; W% t9 { 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
7 y4 \0 L" x ?. l, { k# F, R) Z 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
$ V9 h7 }# n. ]& q& Y% A1 E$ D 9 m7 a. X$ m' Q( ~' ~, y6 ~( Z+ u
二、临场阶段1 T* @$ e' ~8 A: v F( B y$ p
6 _3 N+ j9 [. |9 ?5 Z0 ^
具体到变盘和水位如下:" s! l, }1 g3 {& M
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
, K3 W: {+ `9 R" l" P9 X% o1 x* Z$ k 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
3 _$ i& E- r& y* A8 W) i ! r3 p2 M) ^/ r
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 L. c% l% B: Z1 `* W. H 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:2 V b) Q1 O7 L1 W" h R$ m( L
9 i6 S+ `! X1 W1 E
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿9 }3 f* n+ J& c4 P8 ]
初盘:0.82平手1.04
8 n& d) b' q" y! q3 w2 c9 _( s 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85/ t& U& l6 J) R3 y
3 f& Y! L! n& f: R! R9 l
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
$ M0 [) I, t; t2 e8 y7 N: v 初盘:0.76平手1.10* j2 B4 X8 ]5 S: C/ `
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91# ?& {- \! A Y- m3 C( y
. r6 y; c6 j" M @1 C* W% P% Y( P
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
) X' T( Y' G. J3 o1 N ^ o 初盘:0.82平手1.040 h, o# q& S1 ^+ L! f
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98, h5 w8 z+ K0 Y
- e4 y7 E2 I4 M; r. h: X 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
- ~( u; Z/ \, m/ o7 [ 初盘:0.88平手0.98% \+ {3 m& s7 d4 `" H7 `
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
% D ` T: w/ _2 @" q. u2 c4 I 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。6 W% Q4 M' h+ b) u" m5 P
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
4 a* P9 a. Q [' f 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。9 g. b6 ~% }. v( r k. F/ |1 D/ O
& K9 @7 }5 N# B 三、球队表现
! E/ X$ N$ A, g5 m5 K2 h 8 E. `% G' ]: p+ g/ g
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
3 F: \6 ]2 `; h) a! p" v$ b
6 x: i3 `7 m, b. Y 四、投注要点
2 v7 K: t3 W4 Y+ X 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
! S' \& G: q$ L1 v; }+ w 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
4 C2 r1 s; ]1 e% J8 i/ U& v. M6 \ 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
; J9 s1 K9 D3 p 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大, E* o/ H* t! n3 ]* s
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任 X j- y$ P# H+ _3 _
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
$ U' j' D y2 {$ d3 ^" q. M2 ^5 l 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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