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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 " U4 @' r4 _' z: b' v( n

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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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# A# C! u: |; U0 F# h$ D! k( i三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。/ ]. E8 \4 P# x( J/ U4 F

: Z9 f* Y" p+ c0 Y' A' p/ Q% a方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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0 D$ e1 I& s8 o9 q% N( u2 T就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
9 Y6 v' o; G) z4 P. E5 A. `  I; P' N* g: J% L+ p/ ]
当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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% q* {$ ~9 P( n( N- h) A" c$ a; K亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，8 q% F2 {& v. p% c& O0 m0 O

1 P  U  a9 j3 I0 a' o# G, r! ~; U而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。9 Y, c; t( l& a0 M) ^! f
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。7 }0 U+ p4 x1 ?

4 A4 ~+ Z( u  O1 g  w, ]排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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; x- L! n) j0 I+ Z) @8 P但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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/ Z1 T3 M# C3 |在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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. k( f( }4 Z, E  c, V# w3 z! h几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。3 o7 ]5 W: }" v0 K- E( p+ o2 R

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。9 D: `; E' ~2 @% v  _0 r5 W5 i

: j0 @( g6 j; b放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，" @' M6 F% ]9 E4 s! s

- X6 Z$ |8 t' [+ I; M: x就是回避了大的亏损，
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+ q$ y) c$ w2 }0 G/ C* ?大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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8 p% p5 X+ G% _& n4 f; r回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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