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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘: z- I5 Y) P0 B, f, _0 H. K
     
* L, D( ~1 ^% t6 U3 b! u     平手中水,主队有利
5 Z4 U; S' K2 h0 L; q' B7 o, ^     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
* |! u  J# ^6 m) K% H3 G     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:, [# J* u: ?: n  H/ X
     英超主队
7 c+ R0 A: g$ z9 E( S     胜:13场 48%
0 W2 o# `; Q; s/ f7 `% D/ {     平:5场 17%/ g/ F+ I' y3 C1 T4 q) Y. r
     负:9场 35%
1 x5 _6 O/ V6 v! l& T     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
+ y% G- ]* x( G& u& x     " ]4 I2 A) _! Z8 n) o$ o
     一、初盘阶段9 D' |; J& G$ c& s
     具体到水位如下:
: ~6 \2 r3 b1 N2 R1 T6 [     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
* l( o5 R+ E- E9 j$ [; f     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负* s& {7 @: \$ A& A3 E& j) Z; C& P
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负  X4 n: Q' m8 v& ^
     
! g' Y. o( I/ p: l7 \     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。& P3 y' i6 @. f7 u4 j5 ]
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
2 b$ X/ ?& k4 i  W! C     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。8 r5 L# {" x" I- I
     
2 q" B) [4 J* h( S7 l6 \; a  }     二、临场阶段
; ~2 a) V' J! f3 V. B  }3 V6 l# L     
% r& B* p5 v( _/ G1 q6 ^2 t     具体到变盘和水位如下:
5 M. R9 c' c6 k- U: g     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
6 C# l5 e9 D& y7 `6 l" t2 H6 Y     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
& i( }6 n  {, r0 `     ' J1 n& I9 a! D  u' e3 N
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。" u" W: c! G, [1 f8 V  c$ j  i
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
% S+ i* R. }6 c& g! Z  i7 f     4 |. ]' j, s5 l4 @
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
& e2 g, I& j4 u; G# A     初盘:0.82平手1.04
; N8 v4 L" P/ ]. M/ i7 m0 R1 f     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85  y" k+ m! n6 O6 T  T2 R  V
     6 d) w: J5 w" M& G3 |9 A* F
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆1 c8 G; i, f% G/ u
     初盘:0.76平手1.101 J4 X$ Z( M" ~" V8 E) {/ P
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
& ~; _; z5 S- e0 q- W     
+ u' n& x/ n! S5 }6 n     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技/ K7 x5 s8 ?3 L
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
+ K; j! I; |- D( Q; c6 Q1 C" K     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.989 m1 I5 l7 K5 B! u0 q
     
7 Y: T4 |. e4 T+ Q& L% |     伯恩利2-1西汉姆% [& K) e0 x4 Y1 w) v
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
9 D4 ?$ f- @( S$ p  J9 z     终盘:1.12平/半0.749 c$ h0 G0 _7 d7 m
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。' p* f* g2 V2 v
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。( I7 G/ z" a( ]  a( q2 `
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。1 M  _/ C+ t1 f" a
     : C1 S9 @; K( ~; Z2 X+ \
     三、球队表现
9 D% x+ d8 r6 g, N) v     3 @' Q) s5 ]# o: M3 M
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
2 j; V6 N5 B# p( @! x     3 G1 H5 j+ w* p' B2 Y
     四、投注要点
$ f0 O3 D4 {; _  M) ]& p$ p- E     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
. c# z6 ?1 `/ B/ z  h2 Q4 G- E' n& y9 f/ t     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
* k, B$ ~+ ^) h: w     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败2 X, l7 X& G. ~6 @! T/ A2 G
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
4 J1 `) b" p9 Q: r     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任' r( n% s) H* _3 o+ i0 e
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大: P+ f. m0 k" E9 V) S, D
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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