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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
; o4 ^# F: b) |     1 M, k! S! {) K! S( X
     平手中水,主队有利! v* H5 _7 b; m# Q2 l; o5 e
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
& r& e2 q' v2 X- Q2 p0 M2 h     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
3 z3 [7 L. T; |. _& y' K( G1 h' m     英超主队
  o( E. i8 v- ?     胜:13场 48%
+ @  o/ @1 c1 N     平:5场 17%6 R* Z& D1 w# m" j2 g, W
     负:9场 35%
8 f' H/ b' p4 u9 Y  e     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
# R3 t9 J0 ]6 M8 J, k1 N     0 l. i' [  K- x+ t2 H
     一、初盘阶段1 \4 J" y9 b2 W$ A( X# k: I" V
     具体到水位如下:2 n5 f# a) |) V, `: g( [
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
  y7 t9 m5 C: w; H2 }9 ^  o% y     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负' U% Q$ K/ d4 Y5 f4 i* }
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
" O$ j- ]# S3 ]3 S: l8 n4 D     
* s8 S& p- T0 J/ `1 Q' ^* Q     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
) M( }4 S! {7 S$ S0 U! j! P; U- p     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
8 j0 I# g+ l' u3 c1 P     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。; N/ @/ @: O& S  p6 J3 L
     
+ b5 [& g* O: c6 Z) c6 w     二、临场阶段
# I3 }+ P* _" P# I& Z9 V3 k     
; ~' l7 p$ c! S; a) i* h6 X( ]& E     具体到变盘和水位如下:
* T* y# ^; g8 ]. y6 T; {3 C     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
% C! o$ {  X1 y; M* N1 @     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
3 B: [5 C6 L1 c1 J0 }% v     
% j4 M7 y& Z* a; E     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 I: P* b! ~# N- Z% e     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:1 Q2 v8 Y6 J7 n" D
     
3 c1 `" Q) i9 f" R     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
- u; C6 s5 i# r     初盘:0.82平手1.04
" Q6 @$ s( S% l1 g1 |" R& O6 s     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85, s) k& F( z2 y; c, J: [# a' w
     $ k8 u. H, D# g  [
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
; i& G- X7 Q( z4 ]' F5 P0 h( v     初盘:0.76平手1.10, n9 ]5 T# {* h% \
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
' ^7 y6 V/ [* ?) t     
3 f4 p$ g0 N1 s; ]+ N) Y( [+ {" h     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
9 {# F6 e1 p, j8 t8 o: X1 u     初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 m" }: Y$ }5 l& ?2 ]3 a, a+ D     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.983 Q$ {  p$ ~. Y) L/ o
     3 h+ a6 l9 f, A. o  I, z3 A) s9 H
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
" p% \9 ?! s0 y5 \8 ~& W     初盘:0.88平手0.98
7 V, W# N* k% d. E# b     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
- `% H  Y$ z4 o2 Z- u     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。, Y, _4 d1 t3 n) P  w: @
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
! ^& W% m# h! F4 C* n     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
% h% Z/ [/ q& a* a4 y" T     6 ?2 \( `3 g: L8 U3 O
     三、球队表现; V) h0 H) m# A4 R( v: O1 C
     
0 ?. u& G- u# [' Q, |     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
, H" E2 ^! g: n0 Q7 b, `7 y3 Y     
. t+ k5 w5 `  ?( j4 K9 x, G     四、投注要点
8 n% k* ^" v1 Y     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
# \; i$ j% h% v3 c9 J* Z% L4 V     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
0 W- v/ A( V5 h* q: s     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败5 M, W' R* R5 V! ^
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大% {" L( P, f) y; O' D: w( s
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任4 i: t2 P% ~0 ~: ]0 t- U& k3 ?
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大4 v0 E5 H5 w; ]) P: G
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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