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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘4 R9 a9 B- ~, o5 p
- |1 S& g2 _4 i1 W! i 平手中水,主队有利 K; ?' `' X7 a8 D2 U# {
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。6 p2 a, c; F, K0 d3 y Y. Y6 K
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
1 M+ _' i% ^9 v 英超主队* S6 b: o( \) n
胜:13场 48%
6 V& b0 H5 ?/ z* K6 z$ b+ c) _3 B 平:5场 17%" J& X. z6 b) X. Q% T7 i% F
负:9场 35%; d- W A6 Q& d) W
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
+ [9 {" Z" G( `4 x
$ @# m% u$ p M( J7 t+ F" ~; p 一、初盘阶段
! o/ k" h. K* f4 ]/ a 具体到水位如下:% z2 R$ C' R% \2 o2 F9 i( t
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负8 h2 M5 h7 {; a" ?& c! A8 D
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
, o( L" f% Z7 a- p7 O- G 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负2 b4 M9 P0 |! @' F w
9 m3 S( x2 `! X! {2 F r C3 X
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。4 _6 V# ~0 J0 F. W
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
6 \# N. O8 g% |1 q 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。5 x4 p* }- p8 q0 N* b
9 [; A: k# r. M9 o+ D
二、临场阶段' O% [ e8 ?1 V- t2 o' M6 r7 S0 C
0 @ d5 n5 f0 }+ Y& O1 b b% u$ r 具体到变盘和水位如下:/ X l& Z. p# P
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负0 x3 q. t* J3 z* h
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
* c$ \& g1 |+ y5 L
5 `6 h. P$ r% S: L 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
- r7 t% \' _6 J2 S 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:# U; y; k5 `' }5 M6 U! {
6 |# T0 O2 I" H$ O& x 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿9 D7 B" U% _4 E" I& @, _
初盘:0.82平手1.04
( t( R& {! {: Y: X: ? 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85# c6 U4 }( L7 c E2 A
& e" i9 y9 a8 W8 ?* j$ G$ I 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
6 q1 Y7 m% R" ]. W) P& d 初盘:0.76平手1.10
( N6 ~* p$ Z7 u# b; v+ B 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
( {2 a/ e5 e( U* t. d6 @+ W# D h5 y. ]5 T3 L& ?
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
0 L7 `& V1 m s1 P( e) x# K 初盘:0.82平手1.04
+ {# E8 [! Z% L9 ^ 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
# b% Y% V3 b4 P
) k4 l/ @9 T U: e6 W, ~ 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
# j9 l0 z" E. V0 I7 m" k 初盘:0.88平手0.98
7 t) ^! y* r1 X. D 终盘:1.12平/半0.74/ k0 a: H: u4 i* b9 [. |( d( M
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。, G& ?" u5 w" U( A" b
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。) `. o' b0 h! u6 b8 N3 ?6 F
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。* V3 j2 B& h& D* n1 s. x* r: S7 w5 c
8 D' u- e6 ?% c# }
三、球队表现7 _3 v i! z, z+ J
0 P9 F+ G G/ E& n. c% W5 @* a b
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
+ b2 G+ S8 {2 T7 ^ * i4 v5 F7 w4 d0 K( Q6 s( y
四、投注要点
' ]; G0 O7 i8 a+ n% G 要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 p# k# \4 l. R [% ]$ S S: w
要点2:平手降盘、走两头1 H5 M" }8 S2 T7 `9 ?
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
. x1 O5 G. k$ |2 b% H+ R 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大# W# Z# k: A+ ?. s" P8 _
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
, S, u$ K" y M3 V( P" l( g$ U5 | 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
; u2 Q9 P( B& U/ i 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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