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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘) |7 {' r: s" d. Y0 k* n
     - y. W4 N5 [) _0 q  x  {
     平手中水,主队有利
# y. N' e& R4 H. M8 }* N- A" @" D     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。4 e, L  @: ?& I5 R
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
: `9 }4 ~5 Y! T     英超主队9 r  U! [. p" b* I9 h# Q
     胜:13场 48%
; q( q, y, W7 i3 N9 t' |     平:5场 17%
. ^# \: ~8 u$ V* D2 U7 z' O' p. `" e/ l     负:9场 35%8 U9 ~4 T1 [7 S
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。. H# a: |  b" t3 s/ ~6 W+ R
     2 I$ T# H7 t1 f9 @3 ~4 c6 |; w5 g
     一、初盘阶段
$ r, c3 `" a) g     具体到水位如下:
) R1 C; L; S& A- e, w     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
* {& @8 e: {% z" Q; _     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负7 F, r' U8 r% A& h
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
% e" l" Q, C) _* L) I( H: l) ^( \     
1 X$ s" x- m) ]+ k7 L' m4 _     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。/ c0 W9 O! p( V) x0 K7 U7 H* X
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
6 r; O* f  ^- g6 h8 V- q     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
2 Z9 ?% K/ k7 m; T     3 l# \0 o1 g' j- S/ f4 S
     二、临场阶段
. R, n1 y$ g( m3 O     
0 m7 z. a" c# R' u# B, I( ]- Y     具体到变盘和水位如下:  L! j% ], H; {1 t
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
! u9 L2 p! I  C. c0 p3 ]     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
( R# E) w% s" [/ I. g9 w     % E& S1 g8 A2 x' m2 V0 o
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。3 D3 O# Z0 v/ s4 f) J
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
6 L5 |3 m2 V& q  }5 v2 m- h! i# z     2 H6 N, S: ]$ a% j' w8 B* K
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
2 w+ I% R3 C/ @4 P0 F3 o     初盘:0.82平手1.04! H4 g2 k0 l6 i( {  X+ ^! X
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85* |9 {. G( V6 K. n2 _
     & w, N/ e9 ?% p
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆: @* B( O/ R/ b3 l
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
3 q$ u; t$ [2 C; M" O9 u3 W' V# d     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
1 N# ]9 j6 i! e     
& c3 ?8 @5 E5 c  Q. n     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技) x1 n: T' n: [$ L. a
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
5 e3 ]7 [1 x) j, S     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
  e0 P" ~" h' }* ~7 M& J/ Z     ; a0 U: C5 i0 e
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
' e; Z- O" m( N( a6 `     初盘:0.88平手0.98
. _: J/ s/ H* s9 _" t1 s+ S4 A     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
  ~5 t+ Q3 w" Q5 ?* w; {# t0 A7 H     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。- i8 `* a- @. J6 M4 w: i( a! I$ h6 E
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。5 [% \- G$ c  A( m* _
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
: f; j3 J9 U& _     
3 P0 B2 h, P& H% L2 e3 ^/ ?# ~2 j/ x     三、球队表现9 c" s9 W9 B9 P+ Y# p5 B
     
4 b! _# |8 L+ f( A     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
+ O# g7 a/ c& b  K     6 i* f4 {& U" j; R
     四、投注要点/ M- ]* n4 b7 \, q8 U' x
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
2 l7 j& }% f+ z; s1 ]6 h$ G; a& a     要点2:平手降盘、走两头" ~! ?8 Y+ n! U1 \
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败1 k$ D( [) @4 @8 _; g/ l( D) ~
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% [6 s2 r4 m/ u) ?1 R     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任  w2 Q, m" \: J# |0 c9 X
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大/ m0 U9 z6 i8 ^5 P7 h) V6 y
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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