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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘( J9 i# }+ x% {
" w. Y/ Q3 f: W; e7 K5 K
平手中水,主队有利: x* E% R* V7 o9 R% k
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
9 M. X# J+ q' E/ b: O 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:% F" Z& N/ R @! }/ S
英超主队
# p* j: x0 |; d; n; F% Q9 V8 n 胜:13场 48%
3 M" x$ Y/ n% _0 Y: e) S3 A' Z 平:5场 17%
" ^+ E A: V6 h" t8 `# ?- v& }) T9 V9 D 负:9场 35%
& u2 @; f; O% D 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
! v; A/ D: ?5 X( a* P
8 {2 k' B9 W" E( y' ?2 y) B 一、初盘阶段; z1 w J9 ~5 J! s' J, I- z
具体到水位如下:; o+ E k- w5 c
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负; z( Z5 M- w, Z8 }8 W& u4 {2 a
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
7 @4 |: J' f$ @) m 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负- i# L& A3 E6 C0 B1 v; c% J9 d
6 j% ^4 H2 x4 a. `
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。- ]$ A/ [+ F( @% s
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。* H! m/ t0 ^7 U
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。+ v U7 q9 @7 n6 H8 N* Y' n, Z' R+ }
2 G1 N" U( O3 G l1 \1 \; D* D 二、临场阶段! @4 c" R, F( G; _
$ ~; z$ `7 v J' p0 u 具体到变盘和水位如下:/ b, t' T- M; ^0 a
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
+ x0 o3 \) B" W 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
7 O& @+ T N8 l 6 n# U3 Y: C1 ?* {6 f! ?
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
' d; A0 n% B" p% G9 E" v6 K/ ]! ]3 J 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:: |& {8 c) `* b: t- c' A
: l$ k0 y4 N0 u& l$ ?+ f, Z* q
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿" g M* d4 Z. I( {( |% \
初盘:0.82平手1.04" Y4 ~9 w- G7 A! ]+ s, ~" P- e
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
( ]* z( G7 Q& b! ^9 B" d( K* i( e
% ? G2 U& ~ i7 o7 w 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆6 V3 d8 D# X: R6 n0 a3 H5 g
初盘:0.76平手1.10& q0 w8 c% ?# u" X. g( f' H8 C
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
3 b% L# n, `1 _& o: q( \+ {1 y
7 p8 w" k' E7 R% U 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
) ]) z+ F( g5 q, P' s! k g 初盘:0.82平手1.04
/ W( x! A' R7 z) J& ] 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
4 P6 }$ N3 |3 ]9 Y% M) Z9 U9 \
, x; O- Y+ x# Z8 \ 伯恩利2-1西汉姆3 G" j; M# ?- {! _% |& h$ v
初盘:0.88平手0.987 V4 w# A2 u$ s6 o/ c
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
n2 e: ~2 o- w 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
! L c; D# V/ p% Q3 B- ^ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。3 r$ }, B. C# G4 V* g6 o! @& D
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
- J( t/ ]( z5 Q! i
+ g( T* N# ^% L& t- F9 n8 c 三、球队表现. ~- \: A/ G, B7 V, Z6 W! o+ C
& I& F* F1 `3 s( o8 ^. j$ F; T
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。( @4 B5 v3 Q7 g: J( q% G L" `9 Y4 d
; B5 H E8 {% |& q1 o
四、投注要点
3 T. x; n7 M8 K# o 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
3 \; v. W: f& M6 E+ F 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
( l( d4 c- h; M& y9 U. s 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败$ t: v; I! V; K" d q2 A
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% _7 B8 U5 T# C3 ] 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
; f- [& ?. I, o/ [2 J2 i1 g3 M/ u: B 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大. N; \7 J" t, s C1 u
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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