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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
( q' u# r3 |5 b( o! q9 i  c- \# o     
) s5 u: m8 i; w, _  {7 Z     平手中水,主队有利3 c/ U/ X* d7 l7 Z; `( w- V' P2 y
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
4 Z1 y+ u8 k: o, j  D# l     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
* u! y5 K8 O% w6 ?" {1 l! x     英超主队
, f- `2 x+ M) R( ]/ t# i' I* J0 v     胜:13场 48%
& \8 Y4 t% _4 t  w5 U3 S+ O% o! n     平:5场 17%
( \/ y  }- J1 T3 E     负:9场 35%
: M$ U8 D& ~0 x7 M) G     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
' c0 B4 T9 a# y% o8 y1 G0 a     : f$ s4 D+ o; r5 j0 t* u% N# S" q
     一、初盘阶段
2 Y/ `) `+ n# e( d/ V0 S     具体到水位如下:
3 n8 ^3 `( s( J4 j3 X) Q- Y     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负8 i2 p1 `) [4 ]+ h6 b2 _1 d8 a
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
! c6 m; n! t5 b# {  Q     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负8 |3 D  `" W  w
     
6 ?: _* _( g! F* ?+ k; I     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。) l7 s- U) R' @6 ?' k: |$ W
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。) n( T* [& J! n& P  Q
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
! s- k: Y: @& Z     
' G7 Z2 Z& V, _! R/ O2 s     二、临场阶段
- J5 c" h' e# S% t# t$ h     
6 k8 e: [' H1 M1 `& m: U     具体到变盘和水位如下:
+ i9 n7 J4 M& v1 x( H2 w. {     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
; D' @; W9 v5 @# V; }     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
  }' e# C( O* f+ y3 F( X     
) l$ U( A; o+ i( Z- ~: F     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。6 P- ~' D/ @$ N* M) ~" P8 Z
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
( f. |. ?2 }" Q9 b% a9 A, ~3 p5 V' ^     * l! P' O2 h, T4 d% J4 l
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿7 L) I. ~, Q1 x% Z
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
& [; w6 M$ X' R2 E: E1 U- X4 ?     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.850 l7 ?4 w: e6 S+ m3 x+ Z$ ?; B# j, t
     
- S/ _9 o2 ^4 t" m     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
9 R* ?& ~( u3 R8 @     初盘:0.76平手1.10: H; E$ U3 x2 v: D
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
$ _+ U* N4 o! @& \3 O     7 Z3 P/ j" s1 w2 k
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
  I) S8 _0 ^( x/ V6 n$ v+ k     初盘:0.82平手1.04% a6 N& v$ J1 [
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98) u$ c; x" O! R/ d2 [6 O
     ( _! \$ g4 Z& k) m+ n' y9 M
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆- f9 L- W+ f* J" @$ F
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
, i3 j7 r) b  p6 n' \$ i) _& R" g     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
" g/ |1 I' j$ f5 {: x$ u$ m     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。: J: U8 T& r% A, a: G
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。8 o. T+ `0 E% A; `
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。+ J. @( P; D& F8 O2 x
     ( B$ R8 r: X3 l
     三、球队表现3 |8 w0 q+ j# n% J4 l
     
' S, Y' M" P7 C) f2 m     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
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     四、投注要点$ ?; ?+ \5 ]; l7 I1 g3 N8 z
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
5 U! e: F0 `+ L) _! @% P. e. f; p     要点2:平手降盘、走两头5 N5 d; o* [4 Y4 X6 @
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
, \! z2 J/ g) J: C1 O1 T6 u1 p     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& W3 c6 F& [% {6 X3 S) W
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
, M2 _, p% [* g5 G% J2 p4 b" o/ p1 M     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
  ?6 h% g! x7 I% ]0 I     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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