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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
( [: {" I+ ~4 a     
& {/ j$ Z% ?( J/ h     平手中水,主队有利. m2 S- U. W6 V  J8 p+ F  ]
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
; W/ g4 f7 i& y* s7 z     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
  K) R! j: s2 Y8 _- N' t  E" g& u3 o     英超主队
' {- ~, k- e0 ?/ K% \     胜:13场 48%
* E4 V9 O- _* X; h; J& A     平:5场 17%
9 w6 j5 X# o1 ?     负:9场 35%- b9 n& l8 \! \. ?% q+ y8 {7 E! m  A9 k
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
2 U/ Q" V- h* V     
8 {3 r  D. Q' P' S4 [     一、初盘阶段
" q( G) @6 A1 r; M- J, C- }3 s     具体到水位如下:
! @9 \2 V& l& ?- w     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
! {2 N, m; v$ [  j8 K     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
! Y" J5 @5 g* ?8 z% N! k! W     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负# O; Z3 f' {: o! X- N: D
     3 I; X" A2 A4 H$ I& p( {; K! o
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。: F: P3 \: ]8 i* ]) {
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。/ c7 m5 s7 N' ~; U! q# C
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
# _, C0 p. H3 B4 ~- x     
+ f& f5 H1 A9 |     二、临场阶段
8 |. b( e1 W* a7 g; }0 a     
' I- ]3 ^1 W0 X) W: _, h: _     具体到变盘和水位如下:! _4 X5 w6 z. w1 m4 i& H
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
5 ]0 L- ~: l% H7 g: S4 i( \0 o/ ~     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
; x- x4 D/ B& i( l9 }  B8 C$ f     " ^' }7 O& G0 y4 R# \; p
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。" `: U0 I8 o3 e; Q
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:: O! U8 l; A, [2 g
     ) H: q& x0 E' Y; e" }. N: L
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿$ J0 V+ `, U1 D$ Q3 D( T
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 [% M( q3 M; x. `     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85$ C" [' t, g; [$ k
     ! D! ]  x1 d! T
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆2 G+ a  k( W4 R8 R
     初盘:0.76平手1.10: G! n0 @! X0 \  s7 Z% Z' q5 D- Q2 v: o5 m
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91" T: @8 c9 F. b+ B# x# ?
     
- A& p- O% U/ G4 Q6 A     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
3 A5 `6 I( K0 N# t     初盘:0.82平手1.040 w( Y. C  M3 V1 ?2 H% r
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* Z. p; Q7 O1 U2 u% z     
6 @0 e+ x. j5 r0 Z     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
# e) j& i( `1 B& D7 a. n9 Z     初盘:0.88平手0.98
9 d7 o/ D" ]0 l* @$ @$ r     终盘:1.12平/半0.74- }( ^+ ?$ Z9 \5 a7 m+ D0 ~
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
3 U- W7 [( [. ~9 y; C# h/ o     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。" s/ Y$ |6 q& Q2 _
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。& n$ D9 T6 u4 k( n
     
* _4 m7 a! N- {3 A     三、球队表现1 J- n5 M* s8 |# |3 o
     
  v( E+ c% P  f7 d, i- R     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
& {3 A  B  M: ]     + _& N% U' W( N5 I' ~5 v* @2 f# R
     四、投注要点
: m& q3 W6 Y- D4 }: ~5 a% h     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
: N) @0 X" ]9 _2 R     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
+ c; T2 m- J3 i* j2 ]- f1 B5 G0 L9 Z     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败1 f+ w3 Y. o2 Q  N5 N2 z6 d
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大# N4 T3 T8 }4 t; b% h
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
- t  g1 K/ D' h, O     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大1 I- L- d  X) @" R, W
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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