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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 2 @4 W, Y  z- T! D
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，7 n) S7 M$ N% T3 j9 c$ g

1 l; @3 B) N: q5 X! l* d偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。( A) s* p, P* G' L4 `
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）# H4 e' D8 h; I4 Z& W
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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( [% `- t8 n2 `! x0 j# W6 Z6 W就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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( P& V" m! x1 x% P* S9 K当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，& u% G3 ~9 ?" ?- K' Y

8 b+ G& ]9 T5 l" u而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。$ V- F2 W- S7 ?. w7 U4 @3 P

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; f  |- M9 t* ]& Z; p- y$ |理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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1 R1 Y! T" g# z4 P4 \7 @! G: o但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。9 x% w: p# p) F, }  b

+ D) s8 @6 @* j$ o在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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; N0 x2 v! n0 C# M) B几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。% X7 Q( _  O. X" y0 _7 R
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，+ O1 ?# H& i4 Y" V9 l8 x

" U% Y1 c9 M6 m: {4 G就是回避了大的亏损，  z; m$ ?, y! j1 z, c

2 D6 U3 [( J( P8 Z# s) z1 N大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，, O5 J* A1 p1 A7 _5 j: t
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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