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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。1 m! {, c5 \, }1 ~" L5 l* ~* @
3 `) p n7 E" K1 H% ]9 H) w0 g' vUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？, y1 t6 x' F/ ^: ~) X! Y
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
( A \& W% L5 M% B8 r2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。5 a9 v$ E. R1 v* P& b. x
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来源：Alphractal0 f; G% l- P6 w. F
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。6 W/ F5 \0 l0 ^ r% {. Q! n* v
# z: o6 ]9 @4 L2 [尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。/ t, {$ C+ T& b9 R
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事情变得有趣了( H. V: n4 p; ]8 T/ N2 }- B2 r
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。4 X8 X d1 J2 V1 b/ u) Y0 i
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来源：X6 k3 F" K' i1 |2 u
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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1 L- w4 p$ [" W% n) U1 V+ oBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
$ r3 h* `6 ^& ?8 \* O! E. B" Q4 f) y6 o0 Y; ^/ o/ W, u2 \ n. ]. f( `& U
正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。) U& z9 f0 ?& M/ I
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。" t) s$ n) D9 M7 V
, O" z2 e2 Q) r: Z空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
m& @3 p0 t( k/ ~" ^6 g4 L$ K经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。- W. j4 a Y% L8 M
" A: U9 G) A% l7 g, T7 o来源：TradingView4 X6 A: l1 a: a# p' u' i& Y7 v
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。# @/ q! \0 K7 v/ J3 ?
( ~, f: X4 ~, Z0 c% {$ a/ E+ C然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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, |0 \! y$ Z, {" U% R1 m! x突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。4 ^( [5 ~! E# L4 G3 C( ^
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