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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘$ w7 M6 @7 S/ T" ^
& i: m/ C( c0 n. w* w 平手中水,主队有利
, d2 G2 `% w+ N 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
, E0 u* g. L8 a* u+ U6 Q0 ^; y 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
& E, F, a. l# C5 b" ?) X 英超主队7 W6 v7 A- h4 R, _" |
胜:13场 48%. j+ g6 b0 ^2 i6 m4 s8 S3 _! {
平:5场 17%
" K+ N- w/ m$ d3 F 负:9场 35%
5 x3 H) Y6 i8 N5 l! m. _ 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。 {/ |9 q& y9 M1 b- }0 |/ Y
5 z: ]4 Y/ K% ?& t 一、初盘阶段
. F, D4 i% L- C4 T6 m 具体到水位如下:2 D& c( D. N, ^
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 J3 t, \6 a0 b# t4 ? 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
! i! Z0 n8 y# Z 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
/ h4 \" O8 g7 Y' e $ i/ y# o! d+ Z
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
# |) P3 O8 ~7 X3 i: x5 Z 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。 i. N; ?9 L8 `2 X
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。 J9 {" [$ M3 I: k" {1 C
& h' Z, w/ Y& I' ^1 {
二、临场阶段' t/ V- r) A& f& V; K8 K
+ g1 W' J6 W4 M3 f. K4 Z5 B 具体到变盘和水位如下:- g$ Z; e' S0 V. J6 `9 w
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
; B3 M! g6 i4 a) {+ _! ` a 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负& B: o$ r: B- G& Y$ @
3 r& `$ Y H% T
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
: {5 Q& y r4 _8 z 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
; G+ m' C! @, u0 T' P2 H
' I) |8 ?- b, k* x 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿& }$ z) o% W0 E; z
初盘:0.82平手1.04/ g4 a* b' [4 {! z8 e
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85# W" i7 J5 _+ l/ i3 f( t
1 X% T0 }# v; p5 x6 {. S$ T 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆+ A4 g9 `; ?2 g H- y, A
初盘:0.76平手1.10
, M7 I, Z n0 X; Z* O% t 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
M! t4 s$ {0 t& P6 r2 L; n6 C
" k# }: Q# n! y. g- | 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
9 _" J9 v/ F" Z% Y% a, _ 初盘:0.82平手1.04) i; `! l' V1 g" A8 p6 u
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98 ^" z0 ~' k' ?! u! v! G& u
& v8 D( I7 d$ P 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
1 d0 z7 x, p# G 初盘:0.88平手0.98/ u6 ?8 `& w% w, q h! M
终盘:1.12平/半0.74& O' P* l) e+ _5 r, X
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。& m$ x( E3 Z) X& f: `, I
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: s) w6 z* T# `$ @& F/ P) g
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。9 s& S. W. I s f+ E
9 D! u0 c0 B7 f% E9 h
三、球队表现: M7 k3 J' Y; q/ z; ~
2 L( p) j, n1 g c
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
& S! m3 k1 u' o0 R* c 6 ^8 S) H; c, @$ F+ I0 _
四、投注要点1 H: w5 L+ D( B5 ~. B, p! y9 e+ l
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
* v7 B2 |& u, t8 Z2 ^/ O1 b 要点2:平手降盘、走两头& ]" c$ u" {2 N: E- N0 N& a
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败7 l( K% z8 o+ y ~+ q. C
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
1 `, u2 Q: Z/ O5 V 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任( d! }% E" Q0 W) x0 d
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
: B1 Y a* Z; X, I 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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