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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。) q. I! l6 B3 K- T, \5 v# \2 @
那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
2 B3 h* u) `$ l. _5 O& U ?% jA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}1 B( ]+ v* C8 C. F6 V. K1 L- b0 n
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}
6 H% S7 d2 m" uA(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
& u- h5 ?7 }$ cP(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}# _( J/ C3 I n! }; ]6 s9 `' R1 v
二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)+ ?( x+ E1 S4 Z- ^1 N( i% z
假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
$ E; z& S, Q3 n4 ^" `{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生+ X8 T1 Z1 o$ x6 v# w
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生7 W# h6 f' _6 m. g
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
0 I* Y( c! |3 T8 h0 F; F以及% Z( r9 v: M) F6 O+ q; J* V
{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
. b3 c- s# a8 S) X8 TR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
" S( {3 R, L0 `: ]{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生6 E; ]3 g7 I' \1 a* b( T7 f+ X! L, R
如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率
d8 O. L* z4 W. u那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
9 {5 q0 Q5 O# R9 l) TE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]
" i% \1 u4 H. M) I, E! h" p% j7 WE[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]
9 }/ q7 A6 n% Y2 ?- r$ ^. J) [按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等1 O. S: g) J3 K, x/ l
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)9 i0 M3 e9 R+ c3 t9 E
P(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
" ^% d" v3 [5 U% J6 ?8 CO(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式
y: O& W8 [ {8 c0 F% p' lE[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)5 A! p v% p T, R9 m R
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=16 y% x5 L5 e F) n+ h% j, O
O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式! v* ]0 ` P4 {. F0 B3 ?
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
; w4 x8 x, Y) d4 x$ ?* D" o7 {三、半球盘的计算描述+ W: K' F2 a" X! r& g
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)3 W, A/ o' N. R0 K' e# s
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
: O d2 F7 ] s( _! s1 A$ t- t: P$ l6 P' g{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生/ D! n& d& Q8 V/ N/ ^; `+ P
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生1 n3 z+ \, Z( K) ^( J* l
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
m/ G( V* Q3 Q( `以及
) a% A* i- O2 c% V/ q8 q$ A{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生' K8 c2 A3 n& x+ k. y) x
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生& a& P/ B$ {3 Y H- K
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生$ i# S4 l* O! C- l
如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率0 o" i2 T- y, x( e9 v2 d
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为5 O9 b- w5 E c5 K5 ?
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
+ i$ l% U) Z4 V: {! Q; NE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)4 ~# D8 x0 C6 Q1 Z) U$ X
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
. C! I: X/ ^4 b4 {6 _4 |7 eE[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)6 E( `) ]. H" D* q6 f }9 K/ w0 k
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1! c5 C8 v7 L0 V0 a. [5 Q
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
, l4 o" q2 s+ E E+ D+ ]E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)" f- K4 \5 I8 x7 B
P(a)*O(a)=1
$ f. ~! ^4 Z& QO(a)=1/P(a) \; K/ N- K# m
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率$ j; G7 N7 I# B; J) O& k* Z
O(h)=1/p(h)
2 G g& B* f" m: t7 EO(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]
( I6 f+ \9 H2 v$ ? `+ b6 m四、平半球盘的计算描述3 C- s" `! S$ z. @3 {# L8 _' |5 X
这个稍复杂一点7 O P; }: p) {3 V! \# u
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)2 f8 l: q$ i* i8 F& k! M
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
$ C. o6 T* A' l4 X @{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
0 l7 i. g1 \0 Z* @7 qR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生7 C% M5 _( ~' ]( A+ ^
{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生+ a8 Y6 j- o# h+ H8 [3 q0 U" @
以及
( H$ \1 T: j3 O7 R, r7 N{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
6 d( M% U6 d( w! K5 V) K) bR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
0 j. \2 }8 n( U- z{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
) W, S7 `* L. N" [. W& a& |投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
' T& K4 h3 K: @& D; L4 |E[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))
& _; Z: k8 c% Z& u, Y o, s8 { GE[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]% J9 n$ I" O' B T
和上面计算过程相似,得出:6 q" ^ q, w9 X9 t* v& X/ F- h
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)
y8 r9 m( x6 OP(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1' |) h- _7 \9 V, Z2 d9 k
O(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1
0 X! u; u; w$ H0 v2 S% RO(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))$ ?! O* W' G) K$ n. {" N
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)
' q& T' ]. |7 t7 h) j t1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1! S- g1 A/ ]" R' p. c
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)
* z3 r) z g) f$ d. }* a- G: ?0 E0 ?2 x同样主队让平半就分别是4 v, a% I, Q: o
O(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h), x. q! w- c: @- L
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))
! p2 r6 `8 g3 N* U$ W$ d五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)
l* P# i1 F! b9 t o7 L: r1 H/ i可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算
2 M/ X+ L! f3 \B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}, i8 x: }, e. X1 P' p) y: B/ j7 B
B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}( M) P' o( N) i& @
B(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数
5 O: A2 g4 q' e9 g/ P接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:6 Y5 I+ m0 F# _! W+ U v3 M; J
{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生0 Q* P* g E3 U$ a5 m1 \
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生5 H: y- {2 g% ^: C
{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生" S9 Z% K: ?7 Y4 A/ W5 J, O
以及
! @/ V: R& J. \, ~/ L# c{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
( V# s" v- C. M! x: y1 K2 ?9 DR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生; k( @( _$ O/ l9 c
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生$ |: Z. @" \ Y/ S! M0 R. i
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为3 V" x9 Q& \1 D- \/ k+ N$ @
E[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]2 o$ A; r& k6 r# v3 x; v
E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))& I1 H( C0 y# y6 e
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等5 d9 E/ C4 H& |# X x
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)
# H+ N5 M5 q4 {P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1/ v$ ` l4 H5 {, t! X
O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)% C- d2 y- g+ }: ^ y
O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))8 }1 d2 [% {) a5 G6 D
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a), C2 N- }) f# a# H, L
P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
- ~9 N4 ]+ O- g$ N. j1 KO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1). z1 A i' n: _) |( F. f3 S D
O(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h)): h/ W7 G$ v5 T, c- [& Y# R
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。2 T- j7 J( H& s2 H
简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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