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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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- L. Q" T; B5 c& j& s7 H  d只跟踪一个联赛: [7 L: \, D9 }7 T" E2 Y8 |

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' {4 h, y+ i, f; _+ A全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔. U% Y( K1 I# N8 U& }9 w
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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' W& W/ d- N+ p, ^- Q) I偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。; ?* v9 K. b: Y8 m( q! Y

* k1 H' C4 Y8 o/ X0 ]方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）0 K/ k2 e3 T% B) {! M( ^3 n! }* U; G; i

2 Q& A- S9 X! [3 x: r( Q然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，- z4 G8 e9 H6 k* [$ B" E& G
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
' z8 f. n9 w' w
* c0 Z, ^: Y) D8 w, A3 Z当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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! ^5 c( p4 p) ~$ t亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，0 g7 b1 h2 t) I

$ s3 O+ y3 x& m6 t% W" P( G但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。6 U2 e! W+ }( z8 K2 u( |& l9 M8 X* c

# R# U. o. B; {) i' A) O  H7 e0 ~" V0 c( Y/ w5 z5 D8 A

5 f, D9 w. c4 J7 i理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，' W  N5 v' A) j3 l  M3 K

9 u3 O& A9 ?8 n; N# r( v但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。% y5 a% Z: x) i4 P

+ w( Y9 E) i& |! y* \9 ]: O在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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5 b: z8 b. S: D4 ]: S$ H: q几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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6 C' s+ H) I* r: [: O- g: z* L- r) ^4 s4 I' e9 D$ |. t0 R

/ N, z& h" s7 H# U5 a常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。' B3 I' i2 v- m, w, Q& ^

3 o, a$ q5 |6 T! I# i$ s放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，$ S3 k" c, ]+ h8 e: w7 R
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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; o/ k: o2 F' }/ d回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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